瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw a significant decline in rubber prices due to the continuous fermentation of macro - negative factors. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and factories' enthusiasm for restocking at low prices increased. The spot market for domestic natural rubber had average trading volume, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market became weaker under the influence of macro - negative factors. Market participants were mostly cautious and observant, and traders were not very active in quoting prices. Downstream factories made purchases based on rigid demand [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In the Yunnan producing area, the tapping progress is normal, but in the initial stage, there is less latex, and the weakening of spot prices has affected the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to sell rubber, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. Last week, the total spot inventory in Qingdao showed a slight increase. The bonded inventory continued to increase, while the general trade inventory decreased. Tire factories' enthusiasm for restocking at low prices improved, and the outbound volume of general trade warehouses increased month - on - month. However, with the arrival of imported goods, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, and the inventory still mainly increased [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires varied, with some enterprises that had maintenance at the end of last month gradually resuming normal operation, and some other enterprises appropriately reducing their production loads. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises decreased, and the maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to weaken steadily [7]. - The tariff policy has raised concerns about trade contraction in the market, having a major impact on the global economy and trade pattern. In the short term, it will still cause disturbances in the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: This week, the natural rubber market declined significantly due to macro - negative factors. Import rubber offers dropped, and factories' restocking enthusiasm increased. The domestic spot market had average trading, and the trading atmosphere weakened. Market participants were cautious, and downstream factories made rigid - demand purchases [7]. - Market Outlook: Global rubber - producing areas are starting to tap. Yunnan's tapping is normal, but raw material supply is tight. Qingdao's inventory increased slightly. Tire factories' restocking enthusiasm improved, but overall inventory still increased. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to weaken steadily [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Due to the impact of tariff policies on the market, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 7.98%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber also fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 7.97% [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of April 11, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 165 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of April 11, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 200,110 tons, an increase of 110 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 77,717 tons, an increase of 25,604 tons from last week [24]. Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis: As of April 11, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan/ton from last week. As of April 11, the basis of Shanghai rubber was - 545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of April 10, the basis of 20 - rubber was 329 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week. As of April 10, the non - standard basis was - 425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit: As of April 11, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57.5 (- 11) baht/kg; the cup lump price was 48.3 (- 12.25) baht/kg. As of April 11, the theoretical processing profit of smoked sheets was 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 US dollars/ton from last week; the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 107 US dollars/ton, an increase of 193 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of April 10, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,600 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,500 yuan/ton [40]. Import - In February 2025, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) was 503,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year increase of 44.85%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1,091,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.17% [43]. Inventory in Qingdao - As of April 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 620,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 800 tons, an increase of 0.13%. The bonded area inventory was 80,200 tons, an increase of 5.71%; the general trade inventory was 540,500 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.83 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.35 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.78 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.62 percentage points [47]. Downstream - Tire Operating Rate: As of April 10, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 67.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.97 percentage points [50]. - Tire Exports: In February 2025, China's tire export volume was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.34% and a year - on - year increase of 4.40%. From January to February, China's cumulative tire export volume was 1,198,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.62%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 218,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.28%. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 501,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 278,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.34% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 645,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.70% [53]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In March 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month increase of 29% compared with February and a year - on - year decrease of about 9% compared with 116,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 259,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No information provided