社会服务指数跟踪模型效果点评

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral," indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 Index [10]. Core Insights - The model assumes that the price movements of the underlying assets exhibit good local continuity, with trend reversals occurring less frequently than trend continuations. It also posits that during narrow consolidations, the previous trend will likely continue [3]. - The model's annualized return during the tracking period is 18.08%, with a volatility of 28.87% and a maximum drawdown of 19.93%. However, the total return of the index during the same period is -20.99% [3][4]. - The model's performance varied significantly over different periods, showing small fluctuations around the original value from March 7, 2023, to January 26, 2024, and larger volatility without significant returns from January 26, 2024, to September 25, 2024. After this, the model returned to a positive return trend, albeit with considerable volatility [4]. Summary by Sections Model Overview - The model is designed to track the Shenwan Level 1 Social Service Index, using a specific algorithm to determine trend directions based on price movements and volatility [3]. - The tracking period for the model is from March 7, 2023, to March 18, 2025 [3]. Model Strategy Applicability - The model is not suitable for direct application to the Shenwan Level 1 Social Service Index due to its prolonged periods of significant drawdown compared to the annualized return [4].