大越期货沪铝早报-20250414

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a continued sluggish real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is neutral. The inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased by 9447 tons to 205627 tons last week, also considered neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending down, indicating a bearish signal. The main positions are net short with short positions decreasing, also bearish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices. The sentiment regarding the extension of US tariffs may improve [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall situation of aluminum is a mix of neutral, bearish, and long - term bullish factors as analyzed from fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main positions [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors are high historical aluminum rod inventories with poor consumption, an unoptimistic global economy suppressing downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - The spot price in Shanghai decreased by 375, and the South China storage price decreased by 450, while the Yangtze River price decreased by 400. The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2023, China's aluminum market generally had a supply - demand deficit, except in 2020 when there was a small surplus of 1.3 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23].