白糖周报：巴西开榨叠加宏观滋扰

Market Overview - Domestic sugar futures (Zheng sugar) experienced a high-level adjustment, with a weekly decline of 103 CNY/ton, or -1.66%, closing at 6086 CNY/ton[4] - International raw sugar (New York sugar) saw a weekly drop of 1.1 cents, or -5.81%, ending at 17.83 cents/pound due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions in Brazil[4] Production and Sales - For the 2023/24 sugar production period, total sugar output reached 10.748 million tons, an increase of 1.175 million tons year-on-year[7] - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 5.9958 million tons, up 1.2613 million tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 55.79%, reflecting a 6.33% increase[7] Import Dynamics - Current import profits for Brazilian raw sugar are at -247.16 CNY/ton, while Thai white sugar stands at -129.81 CNY/ton, indicating reduced profitability for imports[8] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The sentiment in the raw sugar market is negative due to concerns over demand and the impact of tariff policies, leading to a price drop below 18 cents[25] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in raw sugar prices if tariff conditions improve, but demand remains weak above 19 cents[25] Domestic Sugar Market Outlook - Domestic sugar prices are expected to be influenced by the tightening of syrup policies and the need to fill production gaps, with potential upward pressure on prices as Brazilian supplies remain uncertain[26]