Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market still has concerns about trade conflicts, and the international crude oil price has declined again, which may have a negative impact on the methanol futures trend. It is expected that the methanol market will likely remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - related news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, it is recommended to operate with a bearish bias [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The methanol market is affected by trade conflict concerns and falling international crude oil prices. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, a bearish operation is recommended [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some plants have shutdown or maintenance plans; March import is expected to be low, and port de - stocking exceeds expectations; olefin operation is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand enters the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operation of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol has risen significantly recently, cost transfer is difficult, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream; upstream factories are actively selling under high - profit conditions [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 88, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][7]. - Inventory: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in coastal areas decreased by 24,800 tons to 301,200 tons [5]. - Operation Rate: The weighted average national operation rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [7]. - Profit: The weekly changes in the profits of coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production were - 37, 0, and - 348 respectively [14]. - External Market: The CFR China price decreased by 7.08% week - on - week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 4.14% week - on - week. The price difference decreased by 5 [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and varying production losses [56]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian plants restarted in mid - March but have low operating rates, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar are generally operating normally [57].
大越期货甲醇早报-20250414
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-14 05:41