能化产品周报：烧碱-20250414

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spring maintenance of caustic soda was less than expected, with high production capacity. In the short term, the downstream market was volatile and weak. The demand for pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing weakened, dragging down the overall performance. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term and operate weakly in the medium term. Attention should be paid to inventory pressure transmission, alumina production, and exports [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - Futures Price: On April 11, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract (SH2505) was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6]. - Spot Price: The weekly average price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 819 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4.88%. The 100% equivalent price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 2,559.375 yuan/ton, and that of 50% was 2,780 yuan/ton. The 100% equivalent price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu was 2,687.5 yuan/ton [6]. - Price Spread: The report presents the price spread data of different types of caustic soda in various regions from March 28 to April 4, 2025 [19]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The average utilization rate of caustic soda enterprise production capacity this week was 83.9%, a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The actual supply reduction was limited as previously overhauled units gradually resumed production [7]. - Demand: The alumina开工率 this week was 83.6%. In March, the domestic alumina production was about 7.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. An additional production capacity of 1.6 million tons is expected in April. In the viscose staple fiber industry, there is no new production capacity in 2025, and the开工 rate this week was 88.36% (a week-on-week increase of 2.43%). The new pulp production capacity was 180,000 tons, and the开工 rate this week was 85%. The开工率 of printing and dyeing factories in East China this week was 75% (a week-on-week decrease of 5%). The weighted average开工率 of the overall downstream was 82.36% (a week-on-week decrease of 1.82 percentage points), and the demand from non-aluminum industries (such as pulp) dragged down the overall performance [7]. 3.3 Inventory As of April 10, 2025, the factory inventory of sample enterprises with a liquid caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [8]. 3.4 Profit - Shandong Region: The loss of liquid chlorine dragged down the comprehensive profit. The ex-factory price of liquid chlorine was -500 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 166.67%); the comprehensive profit of PVC + 0.86 caustic soda was 96.74 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 60.79%), and the PVC loss narrowed. - Northwest Region: The profit of liquid chlorine provided support. The ex-factory price of liquid chlorine in the northwest was +100 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 12.5%); the comprehensive profit of PVC + 0.87 caustic soda was 1,255.50 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 10.69%), maintaining high profits [8].