Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The current price has fully priced in the expected weakening of demand due to the Sino - US tariff increase. Further price drops require actual weakening of demand. In the short term, market sentiment is recovering, but before the end of the Sino - US trade game, it remains the main factor in trading. Prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The reference range for rebar in October is 3000 - 3200 yuan per ton, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan per ton [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is expected to trade in a wide - range volatile pattern. Iron ore supply is relatively low, and short - term iron - making molten iron is likely to stay at a high level. The key in the second quarter is the commissioning of the Xiling project. The terminal demand mainly depends on exports and infrastructure. If exports decline more than expected, the inventory of iron ore will likely increase; otherwise, it will tend to be in a balanced state [3]. Coke Industry - The fundamental situation of coke has improved month - on - month, but the futures market has over - anticipated. With major macro - level negatives such as the significant increase in US tariffs, and the decline in coking coal prices removing cost support and steel price drops bringing pressure for price cuts, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies and switch contracts in a timely manner [5]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to continue to decline, but the short - term downward space is limited. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and switch contracts in a timely manner, as the inventory pressure is still high, and major macro - level negatives such as the significant increase in US tariffs exist [5][6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions will continue to be resolved through production cuts, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Ferromanganese's supply has marginally improved, but cost may still decline. Both are expected to trade in a volatile pattern due to frequent macro - level fluctuations at home and abroad [8]. Summary by Catalog Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar in East China dropped from 3170 to 3160 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils in East China dropped from 3280 to 3250 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions increased to varying degrees, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 38 to 116 yuan [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - making molten iron output increased by 1.5 to 240.2, a rise of 0.6%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.5 to 871.1, a decline of 0.2%. Rebar output increased by 3.7 to 232.4, a rise of 1.6%, and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 9.4 to 313.3, a decline of 2.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 29.5 to 1660.6, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 20.3 to 777.8, a decline of 2.5%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.0 to 384.3, a decline of 0.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 2.8 to 10.3, a decline of 21.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 19.7 to 900.5, a decline of 2.1%. Rebar's apparent demand increased by 3.0 to 252.7, a rise of 1.2%, and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand decreased by 17.0 to 315.3, a decline of 5.1% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 contract for some powders changed. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 48.0, a rise of 1.1%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.0 to 24.5, a rise of 14.0% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of new - exchange 62% Fe swaps and Platts 62% Fe also increased [3]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 265.9 to 2921.9, a decline of 8.3%, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 54.9 to 2188.7, a decline of 2.4% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2, a rise of 0.6%. The daily average ore - unloading volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5 to 318.1, a rise of 0.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 112.4 to 14341.02, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 94.6 to 9077.1, a decline of 1.0%, and the available inventory days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0, a decline of 4.8% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract decreased by 29 to 1522, a decline of 1.8% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The iron - making molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2, a rise of 0.6% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 0.9 to 1008.4, a rise of 0.1%. The coking plant inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 1063, a decline of 0.9%. The coking coal 05 contract decreased by 21 to 893, a decline of 2.2% [5][6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 5.5 to 890.8, a rise of 0.6%, and the clean coal output increased by 1.9 to 454.2, a rise of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.1 to 212.3, a decline of 5.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports increased to varying degrees [5][6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased slightly. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in various regions remained unchanged [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi decreased slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 11.1 to - 117.0, a rise of 8.7% [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.8 to 10.3, a decline of 7.1%. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 1.3 to 69.5, a rise of 1.9%, and the arrival volume increased by 5.5 to 36.4, a rise of 17.7% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 11.3 to 227.5, a decline of 4.7%. The ferromanganese demand increased slightly by 0.1% [8]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.5 to 8.0, a rise of 19.1%. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 6.4 to 351.1, a decline of 1.8% [8].
《黑色》日报-20250414
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-14 11:31