大越期货沪铝早报-20250415

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with changeable short - term macro sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium to futures, which is bullish as the spot price is 19750 and the basis is 145 [2]. - The inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased by 9447 tons to 205627 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - In the long - term, carbon - neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. The sentiment regarding the extension of US tariffs may improve [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely factors: Carbon - neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - Negative factors: Aluminum bar inventory remains at a historical high with poor consumption; the global economy is not optimistic and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. 3.2 Daily Summary - Spot prices: Shanghai's spot price decreased by 375 to 70770, Nanchu's decreased by 450 to 70690, and Changjiang's decreased by 400 to 70870 [4]. - Inventory: SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 29728 to 136300 tons [4]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - China's aluminum supply - demand balance shows that from 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, - 14.2, - 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. In 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 15 million tons [23].