建信期货钢材日评-20250415

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Report [1] - Date: April 15, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On April 14, the main contract of rebar futures RB2510 maintained a volatile trend; the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures HC2510 showed a slightly stronger volatile trend; the main contract of stainless steel futures SS2505 also showed a slightly stronger volatile trend [6]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of RB2510 and HC2510 contracts showed a divergent upward trend, and the green bars of the MACD of the daily lines of these two contracts were narrowing [9]. | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 3131 | 3130 | 3145 | 3118 | 3126 | 0.00% | 1,066,833 | 1,705,840 | 40,463 | 0.83 | | HC2510 | 3242 | 3242 | 3264 | 3231 | 3242 | 0.22% | 476,725 | 1,230,789 | 33,250 | 0.75 | | SS2506 | 12765 | 12825 | 12860 | 12735 | 12805 | 0.87% | 132,926 | 127,087 | 8,119 | 0.76 | [5] 1.2 Spot Market Dynamics | Region | Shanghai | Hangzhou | Beijing | Guangzhou | Nanjing | Jinan | Tianjin | Chengdu | Xi'an | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar Aggregate Price (HRB400E: 20mm) | 3170 | 3180 | 3180 | 3460 | 3320 | 3350 | 3210 | 3280 | 3220 | | Rebar Price Change | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 0 | | Hot-rolled Coil Aggregate Price (4.75mm) | 3270 | 3300 | 3350 | 3260 | 3300 | 3380 | 3240 | 3380 | 3420 | | Hot-rolled Coil Price Change | 20 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | [9] 1.3 Outlook - Recently, the influence of macro-level disturbance factors has declined. After a rebound, the prices of domestic black commodity futures have maintained a volatile trend. - From a fundamental analysis, the crude steel output is at a high level. The weekly demand for the five major steel products has been lower than the same period last year for four consecutive weeks and is significantly lower than that in 2022 - 2023. - On the downstream side, real estate demand is sluggish, infrastructure growth has a slight increase, there is an increase in the automobile, shipbuilding, and machinery industries, and there are concerns about the significant decline in the growth rate of home appliance exports. - Looking ahead, the supply - demand fundamentals face great pressure, market confidence is generally insufficient, and prices are expected to face downward pressure with a weak trend [10]. 2. Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 2742.9 million tons of steel from January to March. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early April, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 983 million tons, a decrease of 53 million tons or 5.1% from the previous month, with the inventory continuing to decline; an increase of 324 million tons or 49.2% from the beginning of the year; and a decrease of 325 million tons or 24.8% compared with the same period last year. - According to Mysteel, from April 7 - 13, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2617.9 million tons, an increase of 258.8 million tons from the previous week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2525.5 million tons, an increase of 336.8 million tons from the previous week; and the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1026.9 million tons, a decrease of 58.5 million tons from the previous week. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.28%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.87 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average pig iron output was 240.22 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons from the previous week. - According to SMM, Ansteel plans to overhaul a 3200m³ blast furnace at the end of April, with an expected overhaul time of 38 days and an average daily impact on pig iron output of about 0.8 million tons. - According to the China Coal Market Network, as of April 11, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports dropped to 2987.8 million tons, a decrease of 73 million tons from the beginning of April but still 713 million tons higher than the same period last year. Among them, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port dropped to 616 million tons, a decrease of 74 million tons from the beginning of the month and 116 million tons higher than the same period last year. - According to Mysteel, from April 7 - 13, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2434.8 million tons, an increase of 41.8 million tons from the previous week. The shipment volume from Australia was 1706.3 million tons, an increase of 47.1 million tons from the previous week, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1476.3 million tons, an increase of 23.2 million tons from the previous week. The shipment volume from Brazil was 728.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2907.7 million tons, a decrease of 14.2 million tons from the previous week [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices and their May contracts [14][18][19][22][23][30]