建信期货棉花日报-20250415

Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market is experiencing shock adjustments after releasing short - term pressure, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads. The external market has support, and attention should be paid to subsequent planting progress and macro - changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market sentiment has eased, and Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth markets are generally weak, with inventory accumulation and price declines [7] - The US dollar index has weakened due to the uncertainty of the Trump administration's import tariff policy. USDA's weekly export signing report shows a decline, but shipments are still at a peak. New - season planting progress is slightly slow, and the drought index is high. The domestic downstream demand is tepid, and the inventory pressure is not significant. After the release of short - term pressure, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly be in shock adjustment, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads [8] 2. Industry News - In March 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.402 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative exports were 66.282 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1% [9] - As of the week of April 8, 2025, CFTC's non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased, short positions continued to decline, and the total ICE positions decreased. The net long ratio was - 13.2%, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 42.9 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]