工业硅期货早报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand remained sluggish, and costs increased in the dry season. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9230 - 9390 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak later, and costs are stable. The overall fundamentals are bullish, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41200 - 41900 [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 57,000 tons, a 13.63% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 in Xinjiang is 2854 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased in the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 612,000 tons, a 0.66% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 273,250 tons, a 2.42% increase; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is emerging, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9230 - 9390 [6][7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 23,100 tons, a 7.94% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for April is predicted to be 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.55GW, a 34.82% increase from the previous week, and inventory was 209,000 tons, a 7.17% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for April is 58.02GW, a 14.30% increase from the previous month. In March, the output of battery cells was 57.32GW, a 39.70% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 2.58GW, a 101.56% increase. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for April is 56.81GW, a 0.88% decrease. In March, the output of components was 51GW, a 38.96% increase from the previous month. The expected output of components in April is 57.88GW, a 13.49% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 52.2GW, a 2.33% increase, and the European monthly inventory is 44.6GW, a 7.46% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 39,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 2350 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On April 14, the price of N - type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 450 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 236,000 tons, a 4.45% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical high, which is bearish [12]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase. On the demand side, silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production increases in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term, and component production continues to increase. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak later. Cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41200 - 41900 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview - Industrial silicon: The prices of most contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan to 10,130 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease; the 05 contract decreased by 145 yuan to 9310 yuan/ton, a 1.53% decrease. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [18]. - Polysilicon: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only minor price changes in a few products [20]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides a large amount of data on the price, production, inventory, and cost trends of industrial silicon and its downstream industries (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon) over different time periods, as well as their supply - demand balance tables [22][25][27][33][35][37][40][42][45][48][51][53][58][61].