中债指数统计及分析月报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2025, the onshore RMB bond market showed mixed performance. Interest - rate bond yields generally increased, while floating - rate bond indices and short - term policy financial bond indices performed well. Credit bond yields fluctuated slightly, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The wealth index returns of credit bonds in all industries were positive, and the spreads between each industry and Treasury bonds decreased slightly [8]. - The Chinese green bond market also showed mixed performance. The ChinaBond Medium - to - High - Grade Green Financial Bond Index had a return of 0.28%, performing strongly among green bond indices. The scale of the green bond market remained stable [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Month's Bond Market Review - The onshore RMB bond market had mixed performance. Interest - rate bond yields generally rose, and credit bond yields fluctuated slightly. The net price index and wealth index returns of the ChinaBond New Composite Index were - 0.45% and - 0.22% respectively. The market volatility increased slightly, and the trading volume recovered to about 26.56 trillion yuan [8][11]. - The Chinese green bond market was mixed. The ChinaBond Medium - to - High - Grade Green Financial Bond Index had a 0.28% return. The "green - oriented" bond market value was 6.29 trillion yuan, down 1.71% from last month. The market of "carbon - neutral" green bonds continued to develop steadily [15]. 3.2 This Month's Interest - Rate Bond Market Review - At the end of the month, except for ultra - short - term bonds, Treasury bond yields generally increased, and the term spreads of Treasury bonds widened slightly. The spreads between policy bank bonds and Treasury bonds fluctuated [19]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Index's wealth index fell 0.30%. Short - term policy financial bond indices performed slightly better. The ChinaBond Investment - Preferred Policy Financial Bond Index outperformed the ChinaBond Investment - Preferred Treasury Bond Index [25]. - Among interest - rate bond indices, floating - rate bond indices and short - term policy financial bond indices performed well. The top 5 interest - rate bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond Floating - Rate Policy Bank Bond Index Linked to DR with a return of 0.29%, while the bottom 5 included the ChinaBond 30 - Year Treasury Bond Index with a return of - 1.76% [28][29]. 3.3 This Month's Credit Bond Market Review - Credit bond yields fluctuated, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The ChinaBond Credit Bond Aggregate Index's wealth index rose 0.30% [30]. - The spreads of high - grade credit bonds narrowed. Taking 3 - year bonds as an example, the spreads between AAA, AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated enterprise bonds and Treasury bonds were at the 25%, 21%, 15%, and 15% percentiles of the past three years respectively [32]. - The spreads between each industry and Treasury bonds decreased slightly. The wealth index returns of all industries were positive, with the ChinaBond Coal Industry Credit Bond Index having a return of about 0.34%, performing the best [34]. - The returns of credit bond indices were generally positive. Low - to - medium - rated and short - duration enterprise bond indices performed well. The top 5 credit bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond High - Yield Enterprise Bond Index with a return of 0.45%, while the bottom 5 included the ChinaBond China Railway Bond Index with a return of - 0.31% [39][40]. - In terms of risk statistics, there was 1 new default issuer and 8 new default bonds this month, with a remaining scale of 149.19 billion yuan [43]. 3.4 Appendix: Correlation of Returns of Major Bond Types The report calculated the correlation coefficients of the daily wealth index returns of major bond types in the previous three months as of March 31, 2025, showing the relationships between different bond indices such as the ChinaBond Investment - Preferred Treasury Bond Index, ChinaBond Investment - Preferred Policy Financial Bond Index, etc. [47]