摩根士丹利：美中关税 —— 对消费者的影响以及对市场的启示

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The report highlights the downside risk to China's growth due to tariff impacts and persistent deflation pressures, with the US imposing significant reciprocal tariffs on China, although some consumer electronics may be exempted [61] - It anticipates slower growth and firmer inflation in the US, driven by tariff uncertainties, leading to a decline in real consumer spending [18][20] - Retailers are significantly exposed to China, averaging around 16% exposure, with gross profit dollars potentially declining by approximately 20% on average due to category-specific blended tariff rates [35][37] - The report indicates that announced tariffs will increase costs for building inputs in the housing sector, which is particularly significant as new homes represent a larger share of the housing market than in decades [31][32] Summary by Sections Tariffs Impact on Chinese Economy - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on China's GDP growth, forecasting a downside risk to the current forecast of 4.5% for 2025 due to persistent deflation pressures [6][7] US Consumer Outlook - Real consumer spending is expected to slow significantly, with increases in prices of imported goods adversely affecting spending [21][24] - Equity market downturns could impact consumption spending among upper-income cohorts, which have seen substantial increases in net worth [26][28] Housing Market Insights - The report notes that new home sales are at their largest proportion of total volumes since before the Global Financial Crisis, indicating a shift in the housing market dynamics [32] Retail Sector Analysis - Retailers face a significant impact from tariffs, with a potential EBITDA downside of 50-70% across various scenarios without offsets [40] - Specialty apparel, footwear, and furniture sectors are among the most exposed to tariff impacts, while beauty, luxury, and staples are less affected [40] IT Hardware Sector - The report highlights that significant assembly exposure remains in China, but US-bound products have diversified to other regions [49] - Recent exemptions have reduced the reciprocal tariff cost burden significantly, leading to a lower average tariff rate for US IT hardware coverage [53][54]