瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 15, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 985.5, down 0.81%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal remained stable at 830. The macro - level shows that due to the rush for exports, China's total import and export value of goods trade in Q1 2025 reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period. Fundamentally, supply is abundant, and the sector's demand is under pressure due to tariffs. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to operate with a weakening trend [2]. - On April 15, the J2505 contract of coke closed at 1567.0, up 2.02%. The first round of coke price increase was implemented in the spot market. The US recently announced exemptions for some products from "reciprocal tariffs", with frequent changes in tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiment. Fundamentally, the short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal. The current pig iron output is 240.22 + 1.49 tons, with balanced supply and demand, and the market expects limited room for pig iron output growth. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 53 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose 2.50 to 908.00 yuan/ton, and J主力合约收盘价 rose 19.00 to 1567.00 yuan/ton [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 increased by 7022 to 477187.00 hands, while J期货合约持仓量 decreased by 238 to 47330.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts decreased by 3365 to - 55378.00 hands, and the net position of the top 20 J contracts increased by 339 to - 1196.00 hands [2]. - The JM9 - 5 month contract spread decreased by 13.00 to 77.50 yuan/ton, and the J9 - 5 month contract spread decreased by 20.50 to 28.50 yuan/ton [2]. - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts remained at 0, and the number of coke warehouse receipts remained at 860 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal remained at 830.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke rose 100.00 to 1575.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) rose 2.50 to 117.50 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of Tangshan second - grade metallurgical coke rose 330.00 to 1580.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The prices of some imported and domestic coking coals in ports remained unchanged, such as the price of Australian imported main coking coal in Jingtang Port at 1290.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The J主力合约基差 rose 81.00 to 8.00 yuan/ton, and the JM主力合约基差 decreased 2.50 to 222.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 10.14 to 268.99 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 1.16 to 192.96 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants increased by 1.93 to 62.70%, and the raw coal output increased by 1086.40 to 43884.80 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite increased by 437.20 to 3873.20 million tons, and the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines increased by 1.90 to 196.40 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports decreased by 6.98 to 646.60 million tons, and the inventory of coke in 18 ports increased by 16.02 to 277.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises increased by 14.10 to 965.69 million tons, and the inventory of coke decreased by 10.17 to 107.30 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.08 to 779.63 million tons, and the coke inventory decreased by 4.88 to 667.99 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises increased by 0.09 to 12.30 days, and the available days of coke for 247 steel mills decreased by 0.15 to 12.41 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased by 115.33 to 884.61 million tons, and the export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased by 17.00 to 42.00 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal decreased by 320.76 to 3622.59 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased by 0.78 to 72.68% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants decreased by 3.00 to - 53.00 yuan/ton, and the coke output remained at 0 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.15 to 83.30%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.55 to 90.21% [2]. - The crude steel output decreased by 243.09 to 7596.92 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that it will focus on revitalizing the stock and moderately increasing the new supply, through new construction, renovation of non - residential buildings such as commercial and office buildings, factories, and community supporting buildings, and overall renovation of urban villages and resettlement housing construction [2]. - On April 14, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on April 15, 2025 [2]. - Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed concerns that Trump's tariff and other policies are weakening allies' trust in US commitments, and some investors are starting to avoid US assets. The sharp rise in US Treasury yields last week is worrying, raising questions about the safety of US Treasuries [2]. - Goldman Sachs' Q1 profit exceeded expectations, with a 15% increase to $4.74 billion, or $14.12 per share. However, its CEO warned that the future environment will be difficult [2].