瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250415

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side production of lead has increased, while the demand side shows weakness. The downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching. The high foreign inventory restricts the upward movement of lead prices. The short - term rebound of Shanghai lead is expected to end. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2505 at around 17,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,916.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead open interest was 80,572 lots, up 701 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,540 lots, down 458 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,378 tons, down 145 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,646 tons, down 3,150 tons; the LME lead inventory was 257,325 tons, up 9,900 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market, it was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME lead spread (0 - 3) was - 21.91 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,004 yuan, down 275 yuan. The domestic recycled lead price (≥98.5%) was 16,640 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 72.61%, down 9.58 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.21 tons, down 0.23 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,978.57 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,586.97 points, up 14.02 points. The monthly automobile output was 3.4986 million, up 51,000; the monthly new - energy automobile output was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said there was no evidence of sovereign investors selling US assets. The EU trade commissioner was in talks in Washington, and progress was made in US - EU tariff negotiations. The New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.58%, and the 3 - year expectation remained at 3%. The Fed governor said in a large - scale tariff scenario, earlier and larger - scale interest rate cuts were preferred in case of significant economic slowdown. There were still differences in reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. OPEC adjusted down the global crude oil demand growth rate and economic growth rate expectations. JPMorgan Chase lowered the 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast from 73 dollars/barrel to 66 dollars/barrel [2]. View Summary - The supply of recycled refined lead and electrolytic lead increased. The price of 1 lead dropped 100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries in some areas was adjusted by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The willingness of refined lead holders to sell increased, but most held firm quotes and few sold. The price of recycled refined lead was 100 yuan/ton lower than that of primary lead. Downstream battery manufacturers preferentially purchased primary lead for rigid demand, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was light. In the traditional off - season of April, new orders decreased, and enterprises adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy [2].