摩根士丹利：中国思考-中国如何对冲关税冲击

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - High tariffs are expected to remain elevated in the short term, posing substantial downward pressure on the economy, leading to heightened market focus on China's policy responses and the direction of the RMB exchange rate [3][11]. - The policy framework is likely to remain reactive, with incremental stimulus measures dependent on economic performance and existing policy effectiveness, suggesting that significant new stimulus may not be introduced until next year [4][12]. - The central bank may allow for a moderate depreciation of the RMB to align with monetary easing, but the potential for disorderly depreciation is considered low due to concerns over capital outflows [13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The escalating tariffs between the US and China increase the risk of long-term trade decoupling, with the US administration indicating a reluctance to further raise tariffs, complicating China's ability to increase imports from the US [3][4]. - The focus is shifting towards China's policy responses, with expectations that the government will expedite the implementation of existing policies rather than introduce new stimulus measures in the immediate term [11]. Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for this year is set at 4.5%, but it faces downward risks due to the sustained high levels of tariffs, which may lead to a rapid decline in economic growth starting in the second quarter [12][13]. - Incremental stimulus measures are anticipated to be in the range of 1-1.5 trillion RMB, potentially boosting economic growth by 0.5-0.8 percentage points [12]. Currency Management - The central bank has already guided the RMB to depreciate by 0.4% against the USD since April 2, 2025, as part of a strategy to enhance currency flexibility in response to high tariffs [13]. - The forecast for the USD/RMB exchange rate by the end of the year is 7.50, but this target faces upward risks due to unexpected tariff impacts [13].