建信期货原油日报-20250416

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: April 16, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC and IEA released their April reports. OPEC was relatively optimistic, only lowering the crude oil demand growth rate by 150,000 barrels per day, while IEA lowered it by 300,000 barrels per day, and the balance sheet remains unoptimistic [6] - The US postponed imposing high - tariffs on some countries, reversing the market's pessimistic expectations and causing oil prices to rebound significantly. EIA significantly lowered the global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in its April report. IEA may continue to lower demand expectations, and with OPEC+ set to significantly increase production in May, the balance sheet may further deteriorate. In the short term, the tariff postponement eases the market's bearish sentiment, but in the context of the trade war, oil prices have limited room for a significant increase and are highly volatile, so bottom - fishing is not advisable [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI's opening price was $61.15, closing at $61.07, with a high of $62.07, a low of $60.12, a daily increase of 0.28%, and a trading volume of 20.71 million lots. Brent's opening price was $64.2, closing at $64.23, with a high of $65.13, a low of $63.40, a daily increase of 0.34%, and a trading volume of 20.17 million lots. SC's opening price was 479.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 477.0 yuan/barrel, with a high of 479.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 469.1 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.77%, and a trading volume of 9.04 million lots [6] 2. Industry News - Morgan Stanley lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast from $73/barrel to $66/barrel [8] - OPEC's monthly report predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 would be 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.45 million barrels per day), and in 2026 it would be 1.28 million barrels per day (previously 1.43 million barrels per day) [8] - IEA's monthly report lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 730,000 barrels per day (previously 1.03 million barrels per day) [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from CFTC, wind, Bloomberg, EIA, etc. [10][12][18]