大越期货玻璃早报-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The glass market is currently facing multiple negative factors, with demand being weak. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. Although there are some supply - side positive factors, overall, the market situation is not optimistic [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Tariff disputes have escalated, dragging down the macro - sentiment. Glass production profit is at a low level, cold - repair in the industry continues, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows. Deep - processing orders are rising, and mid - and downstream inventory replenishment has occurred, with the inflection point of factory inventory reached, but the seasonal peak season for demand is in doubt [3]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1,168 yuan/ton, and the closing price of FG2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 13 yuan, indicating a futures premium [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.203 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [4]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [4]. - Expectation: Glass demand is sluggish, and it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short - term [4]. Impact Factor Summary - Positive Factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass output has continuously dropped to a historical low [6]. - Negative Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the expectation of a seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream periodic inventory replenishment has led to the reduction of glass factory inventory. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a volatile and strong manner at a low level [7]. - Risk Points: The acceleration of industry复产 and the failure of macro and real - estate policies to meet expectations [7]. Glass Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Anquan Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,206 | 1,168 | - 38 | | Current Value | 1,181 | 1,168 | - 13 | | Change Rate | - 2.07% | 0.00% | - 65.79% | [8] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1,168 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental - Cost Side The profit of coal - petroleum coke production lines has rebounded, and the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed [21]. Fundamental - Production The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 224, with a start - up rate of 75.42%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 158,500 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [25][27]. Fundamental - Demand In December 2024, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.9225 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [31]. Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.203 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous week, and the inventory has declined to near the 5 - year average [46]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the annual supply - demand balance of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [47].