碳酸锂期货日报-20250416

Report Overview - Report Date: April 16, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The carbon carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing as a doji again, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces. The total open interest increased by 1,360 lots, and the main contract switched to the 07 contract, with the 07 - 05 spread widening to 180. The spot market center of gravity moved down, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 50 to 71,550 and the price of industrial carbon remaining flat at 69,650. Currently, the downstream material factories have weak demand for spot purchases, and there is still a large gap between the quotes of upstream lithium salt factories and the expected purchase prices of downstream, resulting in cautious market purchasing sentiment. The prices of lithium mica ore and lithium spodumene ore decreased by 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the losses of lithium salt factories purchasing external lithium mica and lithium spodumene both narrowed slightly to 8,511 and 3,988 respectively. Although the current losses are not enough to cause obvious production cuts in salt factories, the current lithium price has fallen below the cost support line of integrated lithium mica production. Moreover, the impact of the previous US counter - tariffs is approaching the end, and the carbonate lithium will return to the fundamental logic. It is expected that the futures price of carbonate lithium is expected to stop falling and rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly downwards, the main contract closed as a doji, the total open interest increased by 1,360 lots, and the main contract switched to the 07 contract, with the 07 - 05 spread widening to 180 [6]. - Spot Market: The center of gravity of the spot market moved down, the price of electric carbon dropped by 50 to 71,550, and the price of industrial carbon remained flat at 69,650. The downstream demand for spot purchases is weak, and the market purchasing sentiment is cautious [6]. - Ore Market: The prices of lithium mica ore and lithium spodumene ore decreased by 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the losses of external - purchasing salt factories narrowed slightly [6]. - Outlook: The lithium price has fallen below the cost support line of integrated lithium mica production, and the impact of previous tariffs is approaching the end. The carbonate lithium will return to the fundamental logic, and the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6]. 3.2 Industry News - On April 14, Funeng Technology obtained the "Compliance Assessment Report for Power Batteries under the EU Battery Regulation (EU 2023/1542)" from TÜV SÜD, which provides a solid technical backing and authoritative qualification guarantee for the company's European market layout and globalization strategy [7]. - The Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently announced the "List of Provincial Major Projects in Yunnan Province for 2025" and the "List of 'Top Priority' Projects in Yunnan Province for 2025", including 19 lithium - related projects such as a 500,000 t/a lithium iron phosphate project and a 320,000 - ton lithium manganese iron phosphate project [7]. - At the 13th International Energy Storage Summit and Exhibition, CATL exhibited a 587Ah large - capacity cell integrated in the new energy storage system "Tianheng". The cell has a high energy density of 430Wh/L, better safety performance than small cells, and can increase the throughput capacity of the battery's entire life cycle by 48% and IRR by 2% - 3% through the bionic SEI film technology [8]