《农产品》日报-20250416

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: After short - term release of export slowdown, the market rebounds, but the benchmark contract conversion affects the price. In China, the production cycle starts, and the price may fluctuate widely in the medium - and short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The impact of Sino - US trade disputes is digested. The NOPA report may show an increase in US soybean oil inventory, but it is still lower than last year. In China, soybean supply shortage will last until the end of the month, and the basis price will decline as Brazilian soybeans arrive [1]. Sugar Industry - The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar season, which will suppress prices in the long - term. Raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic market follows the raw sugar trend, with price support but limited upside due to increasing industrial inventory [3]. Cotton Industry - Macroeconomic uncertainties remain high, and the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Egg Industry - Egg supply and demand are generally balanced, and the national egg price is expected to remain stable this week [7]. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are affected by tariff policies and inventory adjustments. Brazilian supply pressure is increasing. In China, slow customs clearance affects soybean inventory, and the meal basis is boosted. The market may face a short - term correction [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn supply is tightening in the long - term, but short - term factors are mixed. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn starch shows some price differences compared to corn [12]. Pig Industry - The pig futures price is pushed up by feed trends and second - round fattening. In the short - term, the price may be strong, but the sustainability is uncertain due to supply pressure and weak demand [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Prices: On April 15, 2025, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices all declined compared to April 14. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.37% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.19%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.16% [1]. Sugar Industry - Futures Market: On April 15, 2025, the price of sugar 2505 increased by 0.07%, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.37% [3]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.32%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.42% [3]. - Industry Data: The national sugar production increased by 12.27% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 26.64% [3]. Cotton Industry - Futures Market: On April 15, 2025, the price of cotton 2505 decreased by 0.86%, and the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.85% [4]. - Spot Market: The price of Xinjiang 3128B increased slightly, and the FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 2.15% [4]. - Industry Data: Commercial inventory decreased by 6.5%, and the export of textile yarn and fabric increased by 93.8% [4]. Egg Industry - Prices: On April 15, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.05%, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 0.10% [7]. - Related Data: The egg - feed ratio was 2.53, and the breeding profit was - 15.78 yuan/feather [7]. Meal Industry - Prices: On April 15, 2025, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 1.82%, and the price of the M2509 contract decreased by 1.22% [9]. - Spreads: The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in 2509 increased by 2.61% [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn: On April 15, 2025, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.35%, and the import profit decreased by 5.78% [12]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2507 increased by 0.26%, and the starch - corn spread increased by 4.27% [12]. Pig Industry - Futures Market: On April 15, 2025, the price of the pig 2505 contract decreased by 8.33%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.28% [16]. - Spot Market: The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Sichuan increased by 130 yuan/ton [16]. - Related Data: The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.19%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 8.83% [16].