广发期货《黑色》日报-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7] 2. Core Views Steel - The steel industry maintains a pattern of high production, high apparent demand, and low inventory, but there is an expectation of weakening demand on a sequential basis. In the context of Sino - US trade decoupling, long - term demand is expected to weaken. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, and currently, there is no prominent short - term supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that rebar will fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils will fluctuate in the range of 3150 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a long - steel short - ore arbitrage strategy for the near - month contracts [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate. The current high iron - making water production maintains the de - stocking pattern of the fundamentals. It is necessary to verify the export situation of steel products in late April. If the subsequent export decline exceeds expectations, the inventory accumulation expectation of iron ore will increase; if the demand remains resilient, the supply - demand will tend to be balanced [3] Coke - The coke market has improved fundamentally on a sequential basis, but the significant increase in US tariffs is a major macro - negative factor. Coking coal, especially Mongolian coal, is still weak with insufficient cost support. It is recommended to switch the main contract in time and adopt a short - term strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [5] Coking Coal - The coking coal market shows marginal improvement in the spot market, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. There is still room for price decline in the future. It is recommended to switch the main contract in time and adopt a short - term strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [5] Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon has narrowed on a weekly basis. The supply decline has accelerated, but the factory inventory is still high. The demand for non - steel products is insufficient, and the export is still under pressure. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate weakly [6] Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese market shows that the production decline has slowed down, and the in - factory inventory has increased slightly on a sequential basis. There is still pressure on orders and inventory, and further production cuts are needed. The market should pay attention to the subsequent pricing situation [7] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes, with price fluctuations generally within a small range [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar has increased by 6 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average iron - making water production has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase. Rebar production has increased by 3.7 tons to 232.4 tons, a 1.6% increase, while hot - rolled coil production has decreased by 9.4 tons to 313.3 tons, a 2.9% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 29.5 tons to 1660.6 tons, a 1.7% decrease. Rebar inventory has decreased by 20.3 tons to 777.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 2 tons to 384.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume has decreased by 0.7 tons to 11.1 tons, a 6.3% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 19.7 tons to 900.5 tons, a 2.1% decrease. Rebar apparent demand has increased by 3 tons to 252.7 tons, a 1.2% increase, while hot - rolled coil apparent demand has decreased by 17 tons to 315.3 tons, a 5.1% decrease [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased slightly, while the basis of the 05 contract for some powders has decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread remains unchanged, the 9 - 1 spread has increased by 2 to 28.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 2 to - 81.5 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index have also increased [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 336.8 tons to 2525.5 tons, a 15.4% increase, while the global shipping volume has decreased by 14.2 tons to 2907.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 293.9 tons to 9421.1 tons, a 3.0% decrease [3] Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume has increased by 0.5 tons to 318 tons, a 0.2% increase. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production has decreased [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 112.4 tons to 14341.02 tons, a 0.8% decrease, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 94.6 tons to 9077.1 tons, a 1.0% decrease, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills has decreased by 1 day to 20 days, a 4.8% decrease [3] Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke has increased by 50 yuan/ton, the coke 05 contract has increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [5] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged [5] Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills remains unchanged [5] Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase [5] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.9 tons to 1008.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. The inventory of full - sample coking plants has decreased by 10.2 tons to 107.3 tons, a 8.74% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 4.9 tons to 668 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the port inventory has increased by 16 tons to 233.1 tons, a 7.4% increase [5] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap has decreased by 0.7 tons to - 4.1 tons, a 16.8% decrease [5] Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 05 contract has increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [5] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price has decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton, and the Guangzhou Hong Kong - Macau thermal coal ex - warehouse price has increased by 3.7 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The production of Fenwei sample coal mines has increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased [5] Demand - The coking production has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has continued to increase [5] Inventory Changes - The total coking coal inventory has increased, and the upstream mine inventory has changed from de - stocking to stocking [5] Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main contract closing price has decreased by 86 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferrosilicon in different regions remain mostly unchanged [6] Cost and Profit - The costs and profits of ferrosilicon production in different regions remain unchanged [6] Supply - The ferrosilicon production has decreased by 0.8 tons to 10.3 tons, a 7.1% decrease, and the operating rate has decreased by 3 percentage points to 33.4% [6] Demand - The ferrosilicon demand has increased by 0.0 tons to 2.1 tons, a 1.1% increase. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased, and the Hebei Iron and Steel Group's tender price has decreased [6] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises has increased by 1.5 tons to 9.5 tons, a 19.1% increase, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have increased [6] Ferromanganese Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main contract closing price has decreased by 78 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly [7] Cost and Profit - The costs of manganese ore in different origins and the production costs and profits of ferromanganese in different regions have changed to varying degrees [7] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume has increased by 8.6 tons to 78.1 tons, a 12.4% increase, the manganese ore arrival volume has decreased by 4.7 tons to 31.6 tons, a 13.0% decrease, and the manganese ore ore - removal volume has increased significantly [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 6.4 tons to 351.1 tons, a 1.8% decrease [7] Supply - The ferromanganese weekly production has decreased by 0.1 tons to 10.5 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the operating rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points to 46.6% [7] Demand - The ferromanganese demand has increased slightly, and the procurement volume of the Hebei Iron and Steel Group has decreased [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased by 0.9 tons to 15.8 tons, a 6.1% increase, and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory have decreased [7]