广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250416
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-16 07:35
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The production has gradually recovered to the normal level, and the overall daily production has increased again after the maintenance of some alkali plants ended. Although the alkali plants have slightly reduced their inventories recently, there is still inventory pressure in the future. The market is expected to continue weak fluctuations in the future without macro - positive support [1]. - Glass: The current market trading logic is still dominated by the macro - situation, and the fundamentals play a relatively weak role. The spot sales in many places have been strong since mid - March due to the seasonal recovery of demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the delivery logic of contract 05 and then comprehensively evaluate the trading logic of contract 2509 [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon has declined, and the futures price has reached a new low. Although large - scale enterprises have reduced production, the supply reduction is narrowed due to new capacity in Yunnan, the resumption of production of some small hydropower enterprises in the southwest, and the increase in the start - up rate in the northwest. The overall balance may still face the problem of inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure [2]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has broken through the support level and fallen. The spot price is higher than the futures price, and there is no arbitrage space. The polysilicon inventory has increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory has decreased. The downstream demand is still supported in April, but the prices of downstream products have started to weaken, and the downstream production schedule is expected to decline in May. The market atmosphere is bearish [3]. Rubber On the supply side, domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the new - year tapping season, and new rubber is being gradually released. Overseas raw material prices have declined due to the drop in spot prices, weakening the cost support for rubber prices. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires has continued to increase, and enterprises have reduced production to control inventory pressure. It is expected that the rubber price will still face significant pressure in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads - Glass: The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased, with declines of 0.69% and 2.07% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased, with declines of 0.60% and 0.67% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. - Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 73.77 million tons [1]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory - Glass: The inventory decreased by 0.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49%, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% [1]. - Real Estate Data - New construction area decreased by 2.88%, construction area decreased by 20.51%, completion area increased by 5.27%, and sales area increased by 1.81% [1]. Industrial Silicon - Prices and Spreads - The prices of various types of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some types increased [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [2]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national production in March increased by 18.20% to 34.22 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 21.08 million tons. The production in Yunnan decreased by 14.58%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 170.59% [2]. - The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80%, and the operating rate in Xinjiang increased by 30.41% to 78.05% [2]. - Inventory - The factory inventory in Xinjiang increased by 4.42%, and the social inventory increased by 0.66%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.66%, while the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.08% [2]. Polysilicon - Prices and Spreads - The average price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, while the price of N - type silicon wafers decreased by 2.60%. The futures price of contract PS2506 decreased by 2.56% [3]. - The month - to - month spreads of some futures contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [3]. - Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.59%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.38% [3]. - Monthly: The polysilicon production in March increased by 6.66% to 9.61 million tons, and the silicon wafer production increased by 5.05% to 50.76 million tons [3]. - Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 24.4 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [3]. Rubber - Prices and Spreads - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [4]. - Fundamental Data - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China decreased to varying degrees in February [4]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased [4]. - Output and Export: The domestic tire output in December increased by 2.04%, and the tire export volume in February decreased by 30.93% [4]. - Import: The import volume of natural rubber in February decreased by 14.50%, while the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 11.76% [4]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost of some rubber products remained unchanged, and the production profit of STR20 decreased by 82.58% [4]. - Inventory - The bonded - area inventory increased by 0.13%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 49.13% [4].