瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20250416

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract closed down 6.21%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 4%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war suppresses foreign trade demand and restricts freight rates. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index is 1402.35, down 20.07 points from last week, a 1.4% month - on - month decline. The remarks of US President Trump deepen market concerns about the global economy. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI remains in the contraction range, and Germany's manufacturing downturn may pressure the eurozone's economic recovery. In the short term, the panic and risk - aversion sentiment caused by Sino - US tariff hikes may dominate the market, leading to increased fluctuations in the container shipping index (European line) futures. In the long term, it depends on global economic resilience and export substitution effects. If China - EU trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, the far - month futures prices may perform better than the near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor US policies towards Europe and China - EU foreign trade data [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1540.600, down 102.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1626.5, down 78.70 - EC2506 - EC2508 spread: +9.00; EC2506 - EC2510 spread: 234.60, down 59.70 - EC contract basis: +59.50; futures positions: 36441, main contract positions down 45 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1402.35, down 20.07; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1587.84, up 458.39 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1392.78, down 1.90; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 2.56 - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1102.71, down 4.57; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1507.27, up 11.82 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1263.00, up 19.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1208.00, down 18.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 11569.00, up 50.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 13895.00, down 982.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The General Administration of Customs held a symposium with import and export enterprises and industry associations. Enterprises and associations introduced their operations and proposed policy suggestions, expressing support for China's counter - measures against the US - According to Vizion, the total container orders to the US dropped from 516,000 TEUs to 169,000 TEUs in a week, a 67% decline. The freight volume from Asia to the US dropped from 148,000 TEUs to 54,000 TEUs, a 63% decline - Israeli officials said there are still significant differences between Israel and Hamas on the Gaza cease - fire issue. Hamas may release more Israeli detainees, but reaching an agreement is still difficult if it insists on a complete halt of Israeli military operations in Gaza after the cease - fire. Hamas is expected to respond to the new cease - fire proposal in the coming days [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - Japan's March merchandise export year - on - year rate and merchandise import year - on - year rate on April 17 at 07:50 - Germany's March PPI monthly rate on April 17 at 14:00 - Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate as of April 17 at 20:15 - US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12 (in ten thousand people) on April 17 at 20:30 [1]