建信期货生猪日报-20250417

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: April 17, 2025 [2] - Core View: The supply of pigs tends to increase, demand is weakening, and the market is in a state of loose supply and demand. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. The futures contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 16th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative. The highest was 14,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,275 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,253 lots to 160,482 lots [7] - Spot: On the 16th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Pig Market Analysis - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pig fattening pens is rising slightly. Due to low fattening costs and favorable fat - standard price differentials, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased recently. As the weather warms, some farmers are replenishing their stocks. Terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. On April 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 135,900 heads, a decrease of 2,200 heads from the previous day and 1,000 heads from a week ago [8] - Supply Side: The planned sales volume in April is 23.16 million heads, a 3.67% increase from the actual slaughter volume in March and a 7.13% daily increase. In the short - term, the slaughter of farmers has decreased slightly, and the slaughter weight has declined slightly [8] - Overall Market: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. Futures contracts are at a discount to the spot. Near - term contracts (2505/2507) are weak due to the off - season demand, while the far - term 2509 contract is strong due to expected growth in demand and rising feeding costs [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi's tracking and research data, in the week of April 10th, the weekly slaughter volume of the sample was 1.5005 million heads, a decrease of 30,700 heads or 2.01% from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily sample was 138,836 heads, a decrease of 1,391 heads or 0.99% from the previous week [9][11] Group 4: Data Overview - On April 10th, the average market price of 15 - kg piglets was 659 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [18] - As of April 10th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 170 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened with purchased piglets was 161 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 19 yuan/head [18] - As of April 10th, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.32 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.08 yuan/kg. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 15.23 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.3 yuan/kg [18] - In the week of April 10th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.81 kg, a decrease of 0.08 kg or 0.06% from the previous week [18]