棉花早报-20250417

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is currently in a complex situation. The fundamental factors are generally bearish, with factors such as Sino - US tariff increases, increased inventory, and adjusted consumption predictions. However, the basis is bullish, and the current position of cotton is not suitable for chasing short positions. The 09 contract is expected to consolidate in the range of 12,700 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom - bust line in March. In April, USDA lowered consumption and increased inventory, and ICAC predicted a slight increase in production, unchanged consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory. Textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year in March. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.8%, and cotton yarn imports were 210,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,252 has a basis of 1422 (09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - The expected ending inventory for the 24/25 season in April by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Sino - US tariff increases have little significance for further tariff hikes, and the fact of comprehensive trade decoupling is established. The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak sales season for domestic cotton is coming to an end, and the market is generally quiet. The significant increase in textile and clothing exports in March was mainly due to pre - tariff - increase exports, not an improvement in the foreign trade market [4]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In 2024/25 (April), the total global cotton production was 26.321 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 150,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7% (1.722 million tons). Total consumption was 25.261 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 114,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1% (266,000 tons) [8]. - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: For the 2024/25 season (April prediction), the initial inventory was 8.28 million tons, production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) No relevant content provided.