大越期货燃料油早报-20250417

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, different factors have different biases: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis is bullish; inventory is bearish; price trend on the chart is bearish; high - sulfur main position is bearish, while low - sulfur main position is bullish [3]. 2. Core View - Due to the expansion of the price difference between Singapore FOB 0.5% sulfur marine fuel and Rotterdam barge of the same grade, the east - west arbitrage economy is gradually improving, and more medium - sulfur blending components are expected to arrive in Singapore in May. The terminal demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel recovers slowly. Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, and the price of fuel oil was partially boosted by the new round of US sanctions on Iran. For FU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 2930 - 2980 range, and for LU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 3390 - 3420 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The supply of ultra - low sulfur fuel in Singapore is abundant, but there is still a stable demand for medium - sulfur blending components. In March, the sales volume of low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore was 242.6 million tons, a 12.8% month - on - month increase but a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $417.26 per ton with a basis of 255 yuan per ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is $479.5 per ton with a basis of 274 yuan per ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week [3]. - Chart: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - Main Position: High - sulfur main position changes from long to short, while low - sulfur main position changes from short to long [3]. - Expectation: Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher. FU2505: 2930 - 2980 range for bullish operations, LU2505: 3390 - 3420 range for bullish operations [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - Bullish Factors: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (implementation to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - Bearish Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market Driver: The co - existence of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2944, the current value is 2925, a decrease of 19 or 0.65%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3401, the current value is 3374, a decrease of 27 or 0.79%. The basis of FU increased by 93 to 255, a 57.58% increase; the basis of LU increased by 65 to 274, a 31.43% increase [5]. - Spot Quotes: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased by $3 to $477 per ton, a 0.63% decrease; the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at $483 per ton. Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.06 to $417.26 per ton, a 0.98% increase; Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased by $1 to $479.5 per ton, a 0.21% decrease. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.43 to $396.04 per ton, a 1.13% increase; Singapore diesel increased by $5.44 to $585.37 per ton, a 0.94% increase [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated in recent months, with increases and decreases in different weeks [3][8].