Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs decreased after the Spring Festival, with reduced enthusiasm for slaughter, and the pig price fluctuated slightly. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook, and the demand for fresh pork is weak after the Spring Festival. However, the recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. - Overall, the market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern with a slight fluctuation in the weekly price center. - The LH2509 contract of live pigs should be traded within the range of 14,200 to 14,600 intraday [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt The document does not provide relevant content. 2. Recent News - China's recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. The domestic pig consumption market is in a seasonal off - season, with reduced large - pig slaughter, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price remains volatile, and the futures are strongly volatile due to basis support. - After the release of pork demand during the Spring Festival, it weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs was relatively strong due to reduced slaughter, but the downstream consumption expectation was poor, and the overall spot price was still weak. - The profit of domestic pig farming has declined from its high level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has decreased, and the light supply supports the expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: Decreased supply of live pigs after the Spring Festival in China; Tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada [11]. - Bearish Factors: Monthly increase in the domestic live pig inventory; The entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season, which suppresses the pork price [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: After the Spring Festival, the supply of live pigs decreased, and the demand was also weak. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern [8]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 14,860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 535 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 427.43 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [8]. - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. 5. Position Data The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [8].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250417
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-17 01:58