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大越期货PVC期货早报-20250417
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-17 02:16
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the PVC market comprehensively, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The overall view is that the PVC market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bearish bias in the short - term based on the disk and main - position analysis. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range, while continuously monitoring macro - policies and export trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a 10.25% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a 4.18% month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 335,200 tons, a 3.86% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 112,720 tons, a 5.13% month - on - month decrease. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled [6]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.64%, a 0.30 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 40.85% (unchanged), 50.31% (a 0.31 - percentage - point increase), 70.22% (a 0.34 - percentage - point decrease), and 78.03% (a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease) respectively, with the paste resin operating rate higher than the historical average, and the others lower [6][9]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton, a 7.40% month - on - month increase in losses, and the profit of ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, with losses unchanged month - on - month. Both were lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,202.95 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month increase in profit, also lower than the historical average [6]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 451,694 tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 340,681 tons, a 1.26% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 111,013 tons, a 2.34% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 450,600 tons, a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 7.8 days, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - Base - price difference: On April 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,910 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract base - price difference was - 144 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Disk and Main - position: The MA20 is downward, and the 09 - contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position has a net short position, with an increase in short positions [8]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, while the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as month - to - month changes [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - price trend: The report shows the historical trend of the base - price difference between PVC in East China and the main - contract closing price, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [18]. - Price and trading volume: It shows the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from March to April 2025, providing information on market activity and investor sentiment [21]. - Spread analysis: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025, which is useful for spread trading strategies [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium carbide method - related: Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, and their impact on PVC production cost and supply [26][29][31][34]. - Supply trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, and production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the overall PVC production, maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends, showing the supply situation of the PVC market [38][41]. - Demand trend: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between the PVC market and real - estate and infrastructure investment, reflecting the demand situation of the PVC market [44][47][49]. - Inventory situation: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and in - stock days of production enterprises, showing the inventory level of the PVC market [60]. - Ethylene method - related: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method, reflecting the international trade situation of the PVC market [62]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and production data of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, helping to understand the supply - demand balance of the PVC market [65].