广发期货《黑色》日报-20250417

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows a pattern of high production, high apparent demand, and low inventory, but demand is expected to weaken. In the context of Sino - US trade decoupling, long - term demand may decline. The medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. With the approach of the May delivery, the upward elasticity of spot prices is restricted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to domestic loose policies. Consider the long - steel and short - ore arbitrage in the near - month contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The daily hot metal production has risen above 2.4 million tons, but steel mill profits have slightly declined. The supply of iron ore shows a slight decline in global shipments, a significant increase in arrivals, and a continuous decline in port inventories. The terminal demand is affected by exports and infrastructure. If exports decline more than expected, inventory accumulation is likely; otherwise, the market may be in a balanced state [4]. Coke - The coke futures showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. The first - round increase in coke factory spot prices has been implemented. The supply of coke has increased, and demand has also risen with the increase in hot metal production. However, inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to switch to the main contract in time and adopt the strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. The spot market is generally stable, with some signs of weakening. The supply is increasing, and demand is also rising with the increase in coke production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and there is still room for price decline. It is recommended to switch to the main contract in time and adopt the strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures continued to decline. The supply reduction speed has accelerated, but the factory inventory remains high. The demand side shows an increase in hot metal production, but the profit of steel mills has declined. The export of ferrosilicon is under pressure, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures are expected to fluctuate. The supply has slightly decreased, and demand has changed little. The manganese ore supply shows an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals. The inventory of manganese ore in ports has decreased. Pay attention to the centralized procurement situation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions and contracts have declined. The cost and profit of different steel - making processes have changed, with some profits increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production has increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase), while the production of five major steel products has decreased by 1.5 to 871.1 (- 0.2% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 29.5 to 1660.6 (- 1.7% decrease) [1]. Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.7 to 9.4 (- 15.0% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 19.7 to 900.5 (- 2.1% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties have declined, and the basis of 05 contracts has also decreased. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 1.0 to 54.0 (1.9% increase) [4]. Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipments have decreased by 14.2 to 2907.7 (- 0.5% decrease), and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports have increased by 336.8 to 2525.5 (15.4% increase) [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase), and the weekly average daily ore - handling volume at 45 ports has increased by 0.5 to 318.1 (0.2% increase) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 112.4 to 14341.02 (- 0.8% decrease), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 94.6 to 9077.1 (- 1.0% decrease) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke increased by 30 to 1360 (2.3% increase). The 05 and 09 contracts of coke decreased, and the basis increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.8, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.4 [6]. Demand - The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.9 to 1008.4 (0.1% increase), with coking plants and steel mills reducing inventory and ports increasing inventory [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi coking coal warehouse - receipt remained unchanged at 1145, while the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt decreased by 10 to 1063 (- 0.9% decrease). The 05 and 09 contracts of coking coal decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 5.5 to 890.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly clean coal production increased by 1.9 to 454.2 (0.4% increase) [6]. Demand - The weekly average daily production of full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.8, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.4 [6]. Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased, with upstream mines starting to accumulate inventory. The inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.1 to 212.3 (- 5.8% decrease), while the inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased [6]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 74 to 5686 (- 3.0% decrease). The spot prices of some regions decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.8 to 10.3 (- 7.1% decrease), and the operating rate decreased by 3.0 to 33.4 (- 8.24%) [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.1 to 2.1 (1.1% increase), and the daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase) [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.5 to 9.5 (19.1% increase), and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased by 0.3 to 16.3 (1.6% increase) [7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 78 to 5868 (- 1.3% decrease). The spot prices of some regions decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.2 (- 0.8% decrease), and the operating rate increased by 0.1 to 46.6 (0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 (0.14% increase), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 1 to 11 (- 4.3%) [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.9 to 15.8 (6.1% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese decreased by 0.7 to 16 (- 4.2%) [7].