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油脂油料产业日报-20250417
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-04-17 13:05

Report Core View Palm Oil - Domestic import profit remains weak, suppressing ship purchases, with current supply and port inventory at low levels. The large inverted soybean-palm oil price spread squeezes consumption, and monthly demand remains at a minimum. However, with expected production increases in the producing areas, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fall, providing incremental supply in the far month [3]. Soybean Oil - In April, previously purchased ships are arriving at ports, increasing supply pressure and expected oil mill压榨. With no incremental consumption, inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean-palm oil price spread may repair in the far month to compete for market share [3]. Rapeseed Oil - The far month price is supported by reduced imported rapeseed arrivals and policy premiums. Currently, the supply is at a peak, but with limited new supply, the marginal decline is expected to accelerate. High inventory suppresses the near month, but policy uncertainty supports the far month [3]. Beans - The fundamentals of soybean varieties are deteriorating. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, imports exceed expectations, and inventory may gradually increase. The high basis in the near month implies that the market expects future spot prices to fall [15]. Oil Monthly and Inter-varietal Spreads - P 1 - 5 is -622 yuan/ton, up 40; Y - P 01 is -374 yuan/ton, up 66; P 5 - 9 is 554 yuan/ton, down 32; Y - P 05 is -958 yuan/ton, up 56; P 9 - 1 is 68 yuan/ton, down 8; Y - P 09 is -426 yuan/ton, up 32; Y 1 - 5 is -38 yuan/ton, up 50; Y/M 01 is 2.5127, up 1.23%; Y 5 - 9 is 22 yuan/ton, down 8; Y/M 05 is 2.7031, up 2.08%; Y 9 - 1 is 16 yuan/ton, down 42; Y/M 09 is 2.5397, up 1.44%; OI 1 - 5 is -159 yuan/ton, up 10; OI/RM 01 is 3.7707, up 1.76%; OI 5 - 9 is -22 yuan/ton, up 9; OI/RM 05 is 3.7123, up 3.65%; OI 9 - 1 is 181 yuan/ton, down 19; OI/RM 09 is 3.5948, up 3.48% [4]. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Daily Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8010 yuan/ton, down 0.6%; palm oil 05 is 8632 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; palm oil 09 is 8078 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4112 ringgit/ton, up 0.1%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 9010 yuan/ton, down 110; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 932 yuan/ton, up 532; POGO is 473.92 dollars/ton, down 1.168; international soybean - palm oil spread is -71.74 dollars/ton, up 28.15 [7]. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 7636 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; soybean oil 05 is 7674 yuan/ton, down 2.44%; soybean oil 09 is 7652 yuan/ton, down 1.73%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 47.8 cents/pound, up 3.13%; Shandong soybean oil spot is 7920 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong soybean oil basis is 268 yuan/ton, up 24; BOHO (weekly) is 59.077 dollars/barrel, down 8.4694; domestic soybean - palm oil spread is -960 yuan/ton, up 110 [12]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Bean meal 01 is 3039 yuan/ton, down 30, down 0.98%; bean meal 05 is 2839 yuan/ton, down 71, down 2.44%; bean meal 09 is 3013 yuan/ton, down 53, down 1.73%; rapeseed meal 01 is 2425 yuan/ton, down 27, down 1.1%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2506 yuan/ton, down 78, down 3.02%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2594 yuan/ton, down 79, down 2.96%; CBOT soybeans is 1045.75, unchanged; offshore RMB is 7.3273, up 0.0165, up 0.23% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 200, up 41; RM01 - 05 is -81, up 51; M05 - 09 is -174, down 18; RM05 - 09 is -88, up 1; M09 - 01 is -26, down 23; RM09 - 01 is 169, down 52; bean meal Rizhao spot is 3460, unchanged; bean meal Rizhao basis is 447, up 53; rapeseed meal Fujian spot is 2652, down 2; rapeseed meal Fujian basis is -21, up 46; bean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 808, unchanged; bean - rapeseed meal futures spread is 419, up 26 [19].