摩根大通：中国汽车行业_ 25年1季度业绩继续超预期……下一家会是谁？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely is "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 23.00 as of December 2025 [4][45][49] - The investment rating for Changan Automobile is "Neutral" with a target price of CNY 11.50 as of December 2025 [4][56] Core Insights - Geely's Q1 2025 recurring profit is expected to be between CNY 3.2 billion and CNY 3.5 billion, slightly exceeding expectations, while the overall performance appears significantly better due to a substantial one-time valuation gain of CNY 6.47 billion from the integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr [3][45] - Changan's FY 2024 performance looks better than expected, primarily due to a significant fixed asset disposal gain, but recurring profits are slightly below J.P. Morgan's forecast due to ongoing losses in the new energy vehicle segment [3][45] - The report emphasizes that the key factor influencing stock performance will be earnings surprises, which are expected to lead to upward adjustments in market consensus for companies like Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng [1][3] Summary by Sections Geely Automotive - Geely's Q1 2025 performance is driven by a strong model cycle and platform strategy, which is expected to help maintain market share [45][49] - The target price of HKD 23.00 is based on a valuation method that considers both traditional fuel vehicle and new energy vehicle segments [45][49] - The expected revenue for 2025 is CNY 359.7 billion, reflecting a 24% increase from previous estimates [52] Changan Automobile - Changan's FY 2024 performance is bolstered by unexpected gains from fixed asset disposals, but ongoing investments in self-owned brands and autonomous driving technology are expected to impact future profitability [3][45] - The target price for Changan is set at CNY 11.50, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing losses in the new energy vehicle sector [4][56] Market Performance - March 2025 wholesale vehicle sales in China reached 2.915 million units, a 37% month-on-month increase, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicles, which accounted for a penetration rate of 42% [6] - The report forecasts that China's total vehicle exports will reach approximately 6.5 million units in 2025, marking a new historical high [3][6]