摩根士丹利：软件与服务-第一季度首席信息官调查显示市场谨慎

Investment Rating - The industry view for Technology - Software & Services in Europe is rated as In-Line [9] Core Insights - The 1Q25 CIO survey indicates a more muted start to 2025, with IT budget growth expectations aligning with 4Q24, but showing a decline in CIO sentiment due to macro volatility [4][3] - Reseller growth for SAP has slowed to +0.7% year-over-year in 1Q25, down from 3.7% in 4Q24, although other channel checks remain supportive [3] - The best and worst performers in the market last week were OVH Groupe (+22%) and Worldline (-10%), with the overall coverage down approximately 270 basis points, outperforming the market by about 570 basis points [1][8] Summary by Sections 1Q25 CIO Survey - The survey reflects a softening sentiment among CIOs, with expectations for IT budget growth remaining stable compared to 4Q24, but indicating a weakening outlook as macroeconomic conditions become more volatile [4] Company Performance - Hexagon AB reported early demand weakness in hardware sales, indicating broader demand trends [6] - Havas N.V. showed a solid start to 2025 with 1Q25 organic growth accelerating by approximately 3 percentage points compared to 4Q24 [7] Company Guidance - Adyen anticipates a slight acceleration in annual net revenue growth, projecting revenue between €6.69 billion and €6.94 billion for FY25, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 50% by 2026 [27] - SAP expects free cash flow of approximately €8.0 billion for FY25, with a cloud gross profit margin of around 76% [29] Market Performance - The overall market performance for the software sector has shown significant fluctuations, with OVH Groupe leading gains and Worldline experiencing notable declines [1][16]