Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision of the FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from previous estimates, reflecting a cautious outlook on the Chinese economy [4][9]. Core Insights - The key drivers for the strong 1Q growth of 5.4%Y were attributed to front-loaded government bond issuance for infrastructure and robust consumer goods sales [2][5]. - Real GDP growth is expected to slow significantly to below 4.5%Y in 2Q and below 4%Y from 3Q due to elevated US tariffs and their impact on domestic demand [3][9]. - The Chinese government is likely to accelerate the front-loading of a Rmb2 trillion NPC stimulus in 2Q, with potential supplementary fiscal packages in 2H25 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - 1Q GDP growth was reported at 5.4%Y, surpassing the consensus of 5.2%, driven by strong infrastructure and consumption policies [5][9]. - Industrial production showed a YoY increase of 7.7% in March, with manufacturing rising by 7.9% [6]. Export and Tariff Impact - Exports to the US are projected to decline by 50-70% in 2Q and 3Q due to ongoing tariff pressures, exacerbating domestic excess capacity and deflation [3][4]. - The GDP deflator decreased by 10bps to -0.8%Y, indicating deflationary pressures in the economy [2]. Policy Response - The Chinese government is expected to implement measures to boost consumption and address housing inventory issues, although these may only partially mitigate the effects of tariff shocks [4][9]. - A supplementary fiscal package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion is anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][9].
摩根士丹利:中国经济-第二季度至第三季度增长将显著放缓
2025-04-17 15:42