贵金属日评-20250418

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains favorable, and investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset for trading. However, silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. In the mid - term, before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand from the US economy and financial markets will continue to drive the gold price to move strongly, but the volatility of the gold price has also increased. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with a medium - sized position, and avoid chasing high or shorting [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: Fed Chairman Powell remains on the sidelines regarding the economic slowdown and rising inflation expectations caused by tariff weaponization and rules out the possibility of a bailout. The WTO and UNCTAD have significantly lowered the forecasts for global economic growth and commodity trade in 2025. The safe - haven demand has pushed the London gold price to a new record of $3358 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 9999 reached a maximum of 795 yuan per gram. Profit - taking by long positions led to a slight weakening of the gold price after the rally in the Asian session on April 17. Trump's 2.0 new policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. This week, attention should be paid to US tariff policies, China's Q1 economic data, and the interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [4]. - Mid - line Market: After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of upward trend under multiple factors. On February 24, 2025, London gold set a new record of $2956 per ounce, then had a weak correction in late February. In March, due to factors such as increased US economic recession risk, the Fed's slower pace of balance - sheet reduction, and rising geopolitical risks, London gold rose again and officially broke through the $3000 - per - ounce mark on March 17. Before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand will drive the gold price to move strongly, but the high price - to - earnings ratio and long positions also mean increased volatility [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts There are multiple charts in the report, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed will wait for more economic data before deciding on interest - rate adjustments. He also pointed out that the Fed may face a severe situation where tariffs push up inflation while economic growth and potential employment may weaken, and there is no "Fed put" [17]. - The WTO has significantly lowered the forecast for global commodity trade from steady growth to decline, expecting a 0.2% drop this year, down from the 3.0% growth forecast in October. The UNCTAD said that global economic growth may slow down to 2.3% this year [17]. - The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive interest - rate cuts, pausing for the first time. It also said that the uncertainty of US tariffs made it unable to issue a regular economic forecast [17]. - The Trump administration is considering punitive measures to prevent China's DeepSeek from purchasing US technology, and US chip manufacturers such as Intel and AMD are affected by export restrictions, with AMD expecting to bear up to $800 million in costs [18].