广发早知道：汇总版-20250418

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - Zinc: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - Tin: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - Nickel: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - Stainless Steel: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - Coke: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - Coking Coal: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - Silicon Iron: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - Manganese Silicon: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - Pigs: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - Corn: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - Cotton: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].