大越期货沥青期货早报-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in April 2025 is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.9583%, a month - on - month increase of 2.327 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, the building asphalt开工率 is 8.3%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.3076%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 20%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 32%, all lower than the historical average [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 380.22 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 863.3043 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [8]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract fluctuating in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure has increased recently, but it is expected to decrease next week. The planned production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate increased this week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the demand is affected by the off - season [7]. - Cost: Crude oil is strengthening, providing short - term support for asphalt costs, and the processing loss of asphalt has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. - Likely factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - Negative factors: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamentals: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Basis: On April 17, the Shandong spot price was 3,435 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 92 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 1.377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.68%; factory inventory is 909,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.76%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.50%. Social and factory inventories are accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing [10]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 06 contract closes below the MA20 [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis trend: The report presents the basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt [19]. - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: The spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts are shown [22]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil are presented [25]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown [28]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented [32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The profit trend of asphalt is presented [38]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The spread trend between coking and asphalt profits is shown [41]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: The weekly shipment volume trend is presented [44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports is shown [46]. - Production volume: The weekly and monthly production volume trends are presented [49]. - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil are shown [53]. - Local refinery asphalt production: The production trend of local refinery asphalt is presented [56]. - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate trend is presented [59]. - Maintenance loss estimate: The estimated trend of maintenance loss is shown [62]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The trend of exchange warehouse receipts is presented [65]. - Social and factory inventory: The trends of social and factory inventories are presented [69]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: The inventory ratio trend of factory inventory is shown [72]. - Import - export situation: - The export and import trends of asphalt are presented [75]. - The import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt is shown [78]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: The production trend of petroleum coke is presented [81]. - Apparent consumption: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt is presented [84]. - Downstream demand: - The trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented [87]. - The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers are presented [91]. - Asphalt capacity utilization rate: - The capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt is presented [96]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt are presented [99]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt are presented [102]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to April 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, and factory inventory [107].