Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market had limited positive stimuli, and rubber prices fluctuated at a low level. Imported rubber prices declined, while domestic rubber prices followed the futures trend downwards. The demand side showed mixed performance, with semi - steel tire enterprises' capacity utilization weakening and full - steel tire enterprises' production slightly increasing [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting the tapping season. Yunnan is in the transition period with limited raw material output, and Hainan is at the initial stage of tapping. The total inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly last week, with bonded inventory increasing and general trade inventory decreasing [9]. - Tariff policies will still affect the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 14,000 for the ru2509 contract and 12,000 for the nr2506 contract, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market had limited positive factors, with imported rubber prices falling and domestic rubber prices following the futures down. Factory procurement was stable for imported rubber, but domestic rubber demand was mainly for rigid needs [9]. - Market Outlook: Global producing areas are starting to tap. Yunnan has limited raw material output, and Hainan is at the early tapping stage. Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly, with bonded inventory increasing and general trade inventory decreasing. Tire enterprises' capacity utilization fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tire enterprises weakening and full - steel tire enterprises slightly increasing production [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support levels of 14,000 for ru2509 and 12,000 for nr2506, and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell 2.7% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell 2.43% [14]. - As of April 18, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts was 40 [23]. - As of April 18, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 201,150 tons, an increase of 1,040 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 76,911 tons, a decrease of 806 tons from last week [28]. - Spot Market - As of April 18, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton from last week [34]. - As of April 17, the basis of 20 - rubber was 249 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 240 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of April 17, the price of field latex in Thailand was 55.5 (- 2) Thai baht/kg, and cup lump was 49.3 (+ 1) Thai baht/kg. As of April 18, the theoretical processing profit of smoked sheet rubber was 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars/ton from last week; the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 109 US dollars/ton from last week [43]. - As of April 17, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [46]. - Import and Inventory - In February 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 503,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year increase of 44.85%. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 1.0916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.17% [49]. - As of April 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 619,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.24%. Bonded area inventory was 81,600 tons, an increase of 1.76%; general trade inventory was 537,600 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [53]. - Downstream - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 67.44%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.62 percentage points [56]. - In February 2025, China's tire exports were 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.34% and a year - on - year increase of 4.40%. From January to February, the cumulative tire exports were 1.1983 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.62% [59]. - In March 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 29% and a year - on - year decrease of about 9%. From January to March, the cumulative sales were about 259,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250418
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-18 09:12