生猪市场周报：二育积极入场，支撑生猪价格-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of sows is increasing, posing medium - term pressure on the supply side. However, the active entry of second - fattening farmers and the reluctance of breeders to sell in the short term buffer the supply pressure. The upward trend of the slaughterhouse's operating rate was blocked last week, but terminal demand may improve as the May Day holiday approaches. Overall, the second - fattening market and pre - holiday demand are expected to improve, supporting stable fluctuations in spot prices. The short - term hog futures market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, but due to the medium - term supply pressure, the upside space should be viewed with caution. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Review: Hog prices rose, with the main contract up 0.84% weekly [4][7]. - Market Outlook: Medium - term supply pressure exists, but short - term factors buffer it. Terminal demand may improve before the May Day holiday. Short - term futures may fluctuate slightly stronger, but be cautious about the upside [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures prices rose this week, with the main contract up 0.84% weekly [5][7]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of April 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1397 hands to 18996 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 515, an increase of 515 from last week [9][13]. 3.3 Spot Market - Hog and Piglet Prices: The national average hog price was 14.95 yuan/kg this week, up 0.25 yuan/kg from last week and 1.49% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan from last week and 1.21% from last month [17]. - Pork and Sow Prices: On April 10, the national average pork price was 26.03 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [22]. - Pig - grain Ratio: As of April 9, the pig - grain ratio was 6.71, down 0.03 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to decline [27]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sow Inventory: In February 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40660000 heads, up 40000 from the previous month and 0.6% year - on - year, equivalent to 104.3% of the normal inventory. In March, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms increased slightly [32]. - Hog Inventory: In December 2024, the national hog inventory was 427430000 heads, up 490000 from the previous quarter. In March 2025, the inventory of commercial hogs in sample farms increased [35]. - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In March 2025, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in sample farms increased, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hogs this week was 124.01 kg, up 0.03 kg from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of April 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 21.88 yuan/head, up 33.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 79.46 yuan/head, up 28.3 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was 0.4 yuan/head, up 0.22 yuan/head week - on - week [43]. - Pork Imports: From January to March 2025, China imported 280000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [48]. - Substitute Products: As of April 18, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 17, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.11 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg from last week [51]. - Feed Situation: As of April 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 3350.86 yuan/ton, up 79.72 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of April 18, the corn price was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DCE hog feed index fell 0.85% to 933.92, and the spot hog feed price remained unchanged. In March 2025, the monthly feed output was 2777200 tons, an increase of 142800 tons year - on - year [57][61][65]. - CPI: As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [69]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and Cold Storage: In the 16th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 26.84%, down 0.52 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.41%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week [74]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [79]. 3.7 Hog - related Stocks - The report mentions two stocks, Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [80].