Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: April 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The domestic methanol market shows a pattern of strong inland and weak coastal areas this week, with the price difference between ports and inland narrowing significantly [6] - Recently, the output of domestic methanol from maintenance and production - cut related capacities is more than that from restored capacities, leading to a slight decrease in overall production. Although some units are resuming production, enterprise inventories remain low due to order execution. Port inventories have slightly increased this week and are expected to decrease slightly next week [6] - The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased this week [6] - It is recommended to trade the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: Domestic methanol producers raised prices for shipment, the inland market was strong, while the coastal market was under pressure from supply increase expectations, with overall port market being weak [6] - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories remained low, port inventories increased slightly this week and are expected to decrease next week. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short term [6] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.9% [9] - Inter - delivery Spread: As of April 18, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 80 [13] - Position Analysis: As of April 17, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 7656, an increase of 500 from last week [19] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of April 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2430 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 2262.5 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 167.5 yuan/ton, down 177.5 yuan/ton from last week [25] - Foreign Spot Price: As of April 17, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 267 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 76 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from last week [31] - Domestic Basis: As of April 18, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 164 yuan/ton, up 48.5 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of April 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of April 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.26 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38] - Industry: As of April 17, China's methanol production was 1,950,515 tons, a decrease of 11,030 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.37%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of April 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 585,600 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 312,400 tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 274,400 tons, an increase of 7.80% from the previous period. In February 2025, China's methanol imports were 561,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.10%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative imports were 1,604,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.52%. As of April 17, the methanol import profit was 88.01 yuan/ton, down 14.78 yuan/ton from last week [41][44][49] - Downstream: As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 83.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%. As of April 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 474 yuan/ton, an increase of 313 yuan/ton from last week [52][55] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report
瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250418
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-18 09:17