工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅难有行情复苏，抢装结束价格回落-20250418

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon futures fell 7.77% and polysilicon futures dropped 10.09%. The market pessimism spread. For industrial silicon, the basis strengthened while the spot price was relatively firm. For polysilicon, the spot price remained unchanged but the inventory was at a high level, and the futures price was expected to drive the spot price down further [5]. - In terms of the market outlook, for industrial silicon, the supply side is uncertain due to the balance between the production cuts by large - scale plants in the northwest and the new capacity coming online in the southwest. The demand side is weak, with the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries all showing a lack of demand. The high inventory suppresses the price. For polysilicon, although the production cut expectation is increasing in April, the short - term supply remains high. The demand is severely challenged, and the high inventory also exerts pressure on the price [5]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 37000 - 39000 and a stop - loss range of 36000 - 40000 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures fell 7.77% this week, and the basis strengthened. The 5 - month contract of industrial silicon was ending, and the long - position retreat triggered by position transfer led to the decline in futures prices. Polysilicon futures dropped 10.09%. After the end of the downstream installation rush, orders decreased, and the high inventory was expected to lead to a decline in spot prices [5]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, the supply side is uncertain, the demand side is weak, and the high inventory suppresses the price. For polysilicon, the short - term supply remains high, the demand is severely challenged, and the high inventory also exerts pressure on the price [5]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 37000 - 39000 and a stop - loss range of 36000 - 40000 [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The prices of both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell this week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fell 7.77%, and the main contract of polysilicon futures dropped 10.09% [6]. - Industrial Silicon Spot Market: The price of industrial silicon spot fell significantly, and the basis strengthened mainly due to the sharp decline in futures prices. As of April 18, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 9850 yuan/ton, and the basis was 835 yuan/ton [15][19]. - Polysilicon Spot Market: The price of polysilicon futures fell sharply, the basis strengthened, and the spot price remained flat. As of April 18, 2025, the polysilicon spot price was 42 yuan/kg, and the basis was 4235 yuan/g [21][25]. 3. Industry Situation - Industrial Silicon Raw Materials and Cost: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon were stable, and the production cost of industrial silicon fell below most costs, leading to a high willingness of enterprises to stop production. The electricity price in the northwest and southwest regions was different, and the production cost of 421 silicon in the southwest region was higher than the market price, resulting in losses [27][30]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: As of April 17, 2025, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69831 lots. As of April 11, 2025, the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 61.2 tons, showing an increase. The inventory remained at a historical high [36]. - Downstream Industries of Industrial Silicon - Organic Silicon: The production and operating rate of organic silicon continued to decline due to production cuts to support prices. The demand was weak, and the price and profit of organic silicon DMC decreased. As of April 18, 2025, the spot price of organic silicon DMC was 13100 yuan/ton, and the profit was 475 yuan/ton [38][43][47]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. However, it was difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. As of April 18, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20800 yuan/ton, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 1.68 tons [49][54]. - Polysilicon - Related Industries - Silicon Wafer and Battery Chip: The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips decreased, and the rush - installation demand cooled down, which was expected to continue to drag down the demand for polysilicon. As of April 16, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.34 yuan/piece, and the battery chip price was 0.30 yuan/watt [56][61]. - Photovoltaic - Grade Silicon: The price of photovoltaic - grade silicon remained flat this week. The production of upstream industrial silicon decreased, and there was a production increase plan but the implementation was slow. As of April 18, 2025, the price of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic - grade) was 3800 yuan/ton. In March 2025, the polysilicon production plan was 9.57 tons, and it was expected to increase by 4000 - 5000 tons in April [63][65].