玉米类市场周报：下游需求支撑不足，玉米市场震荡走弱-20250418

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The corn market is expected to be volatile and weak due to insufficient downstream demand. For corn, the Sino - US tariff dispute and the USDA's reduction in US corn ending stocks have some positive effects, but domestic downstream demand is weak. For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, low开机率, and high inventory [8][12]. - It is recommended to participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Corn - Market Review: This week, the corn futures closed lower with fluctuations. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Market Outlook: The Sino - US tariff dispute and the USDA's reduction in US corn ending stocks are slightly positive. Domestically, in the Northeast, farmers are busy with spring plowing, and enterprises mainly purchase dry grain. Deep - processing and breeding profits are poor, and market transactions are light. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level is less than 10%, downstream demand is weak, and processing enterprises' losses are increasing [8]. - Strategy: Participate mainly through short - term trading [7]. - Corn Starch - Market Review: The Dalian corn starch futures closed lower with fluctuations. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Market Outlook: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a continuous decline in the开机率, and high inventory. As of April 16, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 138.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, a monthly increase of 1.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.80% [12]. - Strategy: Participate mainly through short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures July contract fluctuated and declined, with a total position of 1,259,116 lots, an increase of 252,882 lots from the previous week. The corn starch futures July contract also fluctuated and declined, with a total position of 191,727 lots, an increase of 14,852 lots from the previous week [18]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 169,847, and the net short position increased. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 10,786, and the net short position decreased [24]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 29,377 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 5,950 lots [30]. - Spot Price and Basis - As of April 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,268.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot average price was - 20 yuan/ton. As of Friday, the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,760 yuan/ton, with a slight decline this week. The basis between the July contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was + 60 yuan/ton [35][39]. - Futures Inter - month Spread - As of Friday, the 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 32 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 67 yuan/ton, both at a medium level in the same period [43]. - Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - As of Friday, the spread between the July contracts of starch and corn was 352 yuan/ton. In the 16th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [56]. - Substitute Spread - As of April 17, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,427.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,268.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 158.68 yuan/ton. In the 16th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 269 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [61]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of April 11, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 164.5 tons, an increase of 11.4 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week. The corn inventory of the four northern ports was 450.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.8 tons, and the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 63.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30 tons [50]. - Grain Sales Progress: As of April 17, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces across the country was 93%, 5% faster than the same period last year. The grain sales progress of farmers in 7 major producing provinces was 93%, 6% faster than the same period last year [65]. - Monthly Import Volume: In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 1.63 million tons or 95.32% compared with the same period last year, and the same as the previous month [69]. - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of April 17, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.54 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.92% [73]. - Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of February 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, an increase of 40,000 heads from the previous month [77]. - Breeding Profit: As of April 11, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 51.15 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 11.86 yuan/head [81]. - Processing Enterprise Profit: As of April 17, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 39 yuan/ton. As of April 18, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 836 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 616 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 254 yuan/ton [86]. - Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of April 16, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.887 million tons, an increase of 0.03% [90]. - Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory - From April 10 to April 16, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous week. The weekly startup rate was 53.94%, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous week. - As of April 16, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 138.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, a monthly increase of 1.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.80% [93]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of April 18, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2505 contract of corn fluctuated and declined to 9.47%, a decrease of 1.49% from 10.96% in the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96]. 3.5. Representative Enterprise The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Beidahuang, but no specific analysis is provided [98].