贵金属市场周报：中美贸易争端加剧，黄金避险需求稳固-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. Tariff policy expectations will continue to disrupt market sentiment, and the Fed's policy path is a key variable. In the long - term, the supporting factors for gold remain solid, while silver's upward momentum may be limited due to weak industrial demand [6]. - The supporting factors for gold in the long - term include central bank gold - buying demand under the global de - dollarization trend, the Fed's possible shift to a loose policy due to the US "twin deficits" and economic slowdown, and the anti - inflation appeal of gold if tariff policies become long - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Tariff policies and Sino - US trade tensions pushed up the gold price to a record high, but initial progress in tariff negotiations eased market panic. US CPI data and Powell's warning on inflation affected the gold price. The US economy showed mixed performance, with strong retail sales but weak industrial output. The weakening US dollar credit boosted gold's monetary and financial attributes. Although some gold speculators took profits, the long - term support for gold remained solid [6]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the precious metals market is affected by multiple factors. If tariff policies expand or negotiations encounter obstacles, safe - haven demand will rise again. The Fed's policy is crucial. In the long - term, gold is well - supported, while silver's upward momentum may be limited [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose significantly this week. As of April 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at $32.23 per ounce, up 3.58% week - on - week; COMEX gold was at $3323.1 per ounce, up 2.79% week - on - week [11]. - ETF Holdings: This week, SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased slightly, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased. As of April 17, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 14120.1 tons, up 1.05% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.29 tons, down 0.09% week - on - week [12][16]. - Net Positions: As of April 8, 2025, COMEX gold and silver net positions decreased significantly. COMEX gold net positions were down 15.82% week - on - week, and COMEX silver net positions were down 18.76% week - on - week [20]. - Basis: This week, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver weakened. As of April 18, 2025, the gold basis was - 2.02 yuan per gram, down 143% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 27 yuan per kilogram, down 71.6% week - on - week [21][23]. - Inventory: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed different trends. As of April 18, 2025, COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.33% week - on - week, while Shanghai Stock Exchange silver inventory decreased by 5.53% week - on - week. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 3.06% week - on - week, and Shanghai Stock Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged [24][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Silver Industry: As of the end of February 2025, China's silver import volume decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, and silver ore imports decreased by 4.79% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2024, the monthly output of integrated circuits increased by 13.83% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year [34][40]. - Gold Industry: As of April 17, 2025, the gold recycling price in China rose by 2.11% week - on - week. As of April 18, 2025, the gold prices of major jewelry brands rose by about 10.3%. As of December 30, 2024, gold industrial demand increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and total gold demand increased by 3.40% month - on - month [46][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: This week, the US dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased. As of April 17, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.41, down 0.38% week - on - week; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34%, down 3.13% week - on - week [51][55]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China and Turkey increased their gold reserves in April, while other countries kept theirs unchanged [56]. - Other Indicators: The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, gold volatility declined, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased significantly [60].