大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the basis is bullish. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as new capacity releases and tariff - affected export demand [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In March, official PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 ppts from February, and Caixin PMI was 51.2%, up 0.4 ppts from February. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, expected to drive the price center down. New capacity releases are concentrated in Q2. The agricultural film peak season is over, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7430 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is 287, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.1 tons (+1.9), neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short and increasing short, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Strong basis [5]. - Negative Factors: New capacity concentration, tariff - affected demand, end of agricultural film peak season [5]. - Main Logic: New capacity releases and tariff - affected demand [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In March, official PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 ppts from February, and Caixin PMI was 51.2%, up 0.4 ppts from February. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, expected to drive the price center down. Tariff counter - measures may increase the cost of imported propane and affect PDH plant profits. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current PP delivery spot price is 7350 (+0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 226, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 61.9 tons (-1.8), neutral [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short and increasing short, bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk is expected to fluctuate today [6]. - Likely Factors: Strong basis [7]. - Negative Factors: New capacity concentration, tariff - affected demand [7]. - Main Logic: New capacity releases and tariff - affected demand [7]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - LLDPE: Spot delivery price is 7430 (-30), 09 contract price is 7143 (+3), basis is 287 (-33), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 55.1 (+1.9), and warehouse receipts are 1565 (0) [8]. - PP: Spot delivery price is 7350 (+0), 09 contract price is 7124 (+25), basis is 226 (-25), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 61.9 (-1.8), and warehouse receipts are 5550 (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].