大越期货燃料油早报-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. However, it presents a mixed view on various factors affecting the market, with some being bullish and others bearish. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil may receive some support in the short term due to the upcoming increase in summer utility demand, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market remains stable. The high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure is easing. Given the elasticity and risks of US tariff policies, international crude oil prices may fluctuate, and fuel oil is expected to follow suit. The report suggests operating within the range of 2970 - 3020 for FU2505 and 3400 - 3450 for LU2506 [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: High - sulfur fuel oil may have limited further downside in the short term as summer utility demand rises, and the market fundamentals will get some support. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable, and the pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market is easing (neutral). The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price (bullish). Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 112 million barrels to 2598.9 million barrels in the week of April 16 (bullish). The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward (bearish). High - sulfur主力holds long positions with an increase in long positions (bullish), while low - sulfur主力holds short positions with a shift from long to short (bearish). The fuel oil is expected to follow the fluctuating trend of international crude oil, and specific operating ranges are given [3]. 2. Multi - empty Concerns - Bullish factors: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts, and China has issued import quotas. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The current prices of the FU and LU main contracts are 2981 and 3467 respectively, with increases of 28 and 54 compared to the previous values, and the increases are 0.95% and 1.58% respectively. The current bases of FU and LU are 166, with increases of 20 and 27 compared to the previous values, and the increases are 13.58% and 19.02% respectively [5]. - Spot market: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 5.58 to 419.28, with an increase of 1.35% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory: In the week of April 16, the inventory was 2598.9 million barrels, a decrease of 112 million barrels compared to the previous week. The report also provides historical inventory data from February 5 to April 16 [3][8].