摩根士丹利：国家电网：为人工智能供能 -分解风险

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tenaga Nasional (TENA.KL) with a price target of RM16.30, reflecting a 22% upside from the current price of RM13.38 [7]. Core Insights - The power market is expected to remain tight, but risks related to US chip exports to South Asia have emerged, prompting a reduction in the price target from RM20.60 to RM16.30 [1][5]. - Tenaga Nasional has experienced a 35% re-rating in 2024 due to higher-than-expected power demand and positive surprises in data center growth in Malaysia [2]. - The tightening of export controls on chips for China data centers and tariffs on Malaysian semiconductors pose risks to Tenaga's growth narrative, leading to adjustments in the cost of capital and long-term growth expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Valuation - The price target for Tenaga Nasional has been lowered to RM16.30 from RM20.60, reflecting increased risks associated with slower power demand growth [5][37]. - The implied target multiple has been adjusted from approximately 20x to 16x due to anticipated slower growth in power demand [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RM65,835 million, RM71,203 million, RM73,352 million, and RM75,278 million respectively [30]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised to RM0.90, RM1.00, and RM1.09, reflecting a decrease of 2%, 4%, and 13% respectively [34][33]. Market Dynamics - Load utilization in February 2025 was reported at 700MW, indicating a significant increase from 400MW in December 2024, with no slowdown observed in the data center pipeline [4]. - The report notes that Tenaga's data center pipeline remains robust, with 39 additional projects in the application stage and 60 at pre-consultation [4][21]. Regulatory and Economic Factors - The regulatory environment is expected to support Tenaga's capital expenditures, allowing for sustained dividends at a yield of 4% and earnings growth of 6-7% CAGR, even if data center demand disappoints in 2025 [5][41]. - The report highlights that Tenaga's profitability is set to benefit from energy transition investments and a growing demand for power, particularly from data centers [16][41].