摩根士丹利：大中华区科技硬件月度数据手册：2025 年第二季度在关税不确定性下，iPhone 和 iPad 产量增加

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [5]. Core Insights - The 2Q25 iPhone build estimates have been raised by 4 million units to 45 million units, reflecting a 10% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 15% increase year-over-year. This adjustment is made to maintain legacy model stocking amid tariff uncertainties, rather than indicating strong demand [1][7]. - The 2Q25 iPad build forecast has been increased by 1.5 million units to 13 million units, representing an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 24% increase year-over-year. This is attributed to stronger-than-expected stocking momentum ahead of tariffs [2][7]. Summary by Sections iPhone Production - The iPhone production in 2Q25 is estimated at 45 million units, which is a 10% decline from the previous quarter but a 15% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This is primarily to keep legacy models stocked amid tariff uncertainties [1][7]. - Supply chain checks indicate that assembly partners are likely to accelerate production diversification, particularly increasing iPhone production in India, which is expected to be less than 15% in 2024 [1]. iPad Production - The iPad build forecast for 2Q25 has been raised to 13 million units, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 24% increase year-over-year. This increase is due to stronger-than-expected stocking momentum ahead of potential tariffs [2][7]. - The assembly split for iPads is approximately 70% in China and 30% in Vietnam, indicating less urgency to diversify production compared to iPhones [2].