GEELY AUTO(US:GELYY)2025-04-21 03:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile Holdings is Overweight [3][12][78]. Core Insights - The report indicates a price target of HK$21.00 for Geely Automobile Holdings, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HK$16.54 [3][6][12]. - The earnings estimate for 2025 has been lowered by 14% to Rmb17 billion due to an accounting change, while the 2026 earnings estimate has been raised by 8% to Rmb21.5 billion [2][12]. - Geely is expected to continue premiumizing its product lineup, which should lead to significant gross margin expansion as price competition eases [10][12]. - The company is gaining market share domestically and is expanding its global footprint, which presents growth opportunities [12][21]. Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - Total sales volume estimates for 2025 are projected at 2,030,819 units, with net income expected to reach Rmb22,023.4 million [17][19]. - The average selling price (ASP) for Geely's vehicles is expected to be Rmb97,727 in 2025 [17]. Market Position - Geely has seen increasing market share in the domestic market and is actively developing its NEV (New Energy Vehicle) business [12][21]. - The profitability of the Lynk&Co brand is expected to stabilize and gradually improve, contributing positively to Geely's overall performance [11][12]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The report highlights that Geely's risk-reward profile is favorable, with a base case price target of HK$21.00 and a bull case target of HK$35.60 [6][10][16]. - The consensus price target distribution shows a range from HK$14.10 to HK$29.20, indicating varying market expectations [7][10].