摩根士丹利：债券策略：本周策略 —— 市场状况可能起伏不定

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [16]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the core ingredients for a recovery in the industry are present, although a full recovery may take additional time [3]. - There is skepticism regarding the immediate pickup in SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) demand, suggesting that supply will likely remain busy [3]. - The report highlights that the new issue market is expected to remain active as long as ratios stay below 88-90% in 10-year bonds [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The estimated three-week gross supply is projected at $30 billion, with a bull-bear range of $25-32 billion [7]. - Dealer balances are reported to be above average, likely increasing by a few percent week-over-week [7]. - Bid wanted activity is expected to remain heavy, estimated at $1-2 billion per day [7]. Market Conditions - The report notes that ratios are up and yields are higher, with some bonds offering 5% coupons at par [7]. - High levels of rate volatility are likely to keep dealers cautious, as investors express unease over market volatility [7]. - A week without major headlines is deemed necessary to calm investor sentiment [7].