HSBC HOLDINGS(US:HSBC)2025-04-21 03:00Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global trade is undergoing significant structural shifts, particularly influenced by US tariff policies and the reconfiguration of supply chains [2][6] - China has increased its involvement in global trade corridors, now being a top import source for 180 markets, predominantly emerging economies [3][4] - The US-Mexico corridor has become the largest goods corridor globally, benefiting from US-China trade tensions [4][6] - Emerging markets are increasingly fostering closer trade relations, particularly in the China-MENA corridor, which has seen rapid growth [6][12] Summary by Sections Trade Flows and Corridors - A decade ago, China was involved in 13 of the top 30 goods import corridors; this has increased to 17 by 2024 [3][15] - The US-Mexico corridor has surpassed the US-China corridor in terms of import volume [4][15] - The share of Chinese value-added in US imports from Vietnam has been rising, indicating a complex interdependence despite trade tensions [5][61] Trade Dynamics and Shifts - Trade is now traveling further geographically than it did 10-15 years ago, with a notable increase in the average distance for top trade corridors [5][76] - The report highlights that while nearshoring is discussed, the overall trend shows trade is expanding in distance [5][76] - The EU remains a significant import source for many economies, but its relative importance has declined over the years [42][44] Future Trade Projections - Ongoing protectionism and varying US tariff rates may create opportunities for tariff arbitrage, making certain markets more attractive for sourcing [6][12] - The report anticipates continued growth in intra-BRICS+ trade, projected to increase by 20% by 2030 [122] - Two-way goods trade between Asia and MENA is expected to more than double by 2035, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [125]