镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Positive factors: Indonesia's nickel ore supply is experiencing a temporary shortage, and the rainy season continues, causing nickel ore prices to remain firm and providing cost support. The low inventory of intermediate products and strong cost support for refined nickel, along with the boost from new energy consumption, have affected the spot premium and discount [2]. - Negative factors: Global visible inventories are continuously accumulating, with both LME and SHFE nickel inventories at historical highs. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the growth in the new energy sector has slowed down, and the demand for ternary batteries is dragged down by the substitution effect [2]. - Overall view: The fundamental situation maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nickel futures: The latest prices of SHFE nickel main contract, consecutive contracts, and LME nickel 3M have increased compared to the previous week, with increases of 1.09%, 2.15%, 2.16%, 2.16%, and 2.25% respectively. However, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, with decreases of 9.14% and 28.0% respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity has decreased by 2.17%, and the basis of the main contract has decreased by 18.18% [3]. - Stainless steel futures: The prices of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts have shown mixed trends, with the main contract decreasing by 1%, and consecutive contracts increasing by 0.27%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume has increased by 10.38%, the open interest has increased by 3.41%, the warehouse receipt quantity has decreased by 6.11%, and the basis of the main contract has decreased by 16.67% [3]. - Nickel spot: The prices of various nickel products, including Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel, have decreased to varying degrees, with decreases ranging from 0.02% to 0.33% [3]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel has increased by 652 tons, and the LME nickel inventory has increased by 1938 tons. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased by 2.8 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory has increased by 3690.5 tons [3][5]. Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - Production: The report shows the seasonal production of Chinese refined nickel and the total monthly supply of domestic primary nickel including imports, but specific data trends are not elaborated [13]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans and the LME nickel inventory are presented seasonally, but specific data trends are not elaborated [14]. Nickel Iron - Price: The average prices of Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) and Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron (factory price) are shown, but specific price trends are not elaborated [17][19]. - Production: The seasonal production of Chinese and Indonesian nickel iron is presented, but specific production trends are not elaborated [18][20]. Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Price: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) are shown, but specific price trends are not elaborated [22][23]. - Profitability: The seasonal profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China are presented, but specific profitability trends are not elaborated [24][25]. - Production: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown, but specific production trends are not elaborated [26]. Stainless Steel - Profitability: The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils is presented, but specific profitability trends are not elaborated [27]. - Production: The seasonal production and inventory of stainless steel are shown, but specific production and inventory trends are not elaborated [28][30].